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15.03.201912:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The UK approved the extension of the exit agreement, now the answer is for the EU. Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged

Dlouhodobá prognóza
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The passion around Brexit continues. Another vote took place yesterday, in which the British Parliament voted to postpone Brexit after the March 29 deadline. So far we are talking about at least a three-month transfer, but it may also require a longer period.

The decision to postpone Brexit was taken by parliament by 412 votes to 202.

Now the transfer will be considered at the summit to be held in Brussels next Thursday. If all EU members subscribe to the UK proposal, the hype around the deal will decrease, which will calm the financial markets.

Not surprisingly, the British pound completely ignored this vote, since almost no one doubted such an outcome.

As long as there is time until next Thursday, the current situation with yesterday's results will allow Prime Minister Theresa May to hold another vote on the signing of an agreement on British withdrawal from the EU by using the threat of a protracted process. However, the situation is unlikely to change in favor of May, although this would be very strong support for the British pound, which would rush up against the major world currencies.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD pair, after yesterday's volatile day, the situation has not changed significantly. The main resistance levels are in the range of 1.3325 and 1.3375, above which the bears will try not to let the pair. As for the probable downward correction, support is seen in the 1.3180 and 1.3130 areas.

The US dollar fell slightly against the European currency after it became known that sales in the US primary housing market fell sharply in January. According to the US Department of Commerce, sales in the primary housing market fell by 6.9% compared with the previous month, to 607,000 homes per year. Economists had expected sales of 622,000 homes per year. Data for December was revised upwards, with sales of 652,000 homes per year, compared with 621,000 previously reported.

A small downward correction in the EUR / USD pair, which had been brewing for a long time, took place yesterday, but the bulls are unlikely to have to rely on the resumption of growth. Today's data on inflation in the Eurozone can put pressure on risky assets, which will lead to a return to the region of yesterday's lows and their breakdown, which will resume pressure on the euro and collapse the pair into support area of 1.1275 and 1.1250. Any growth above resistance 1.1340 will be perceived by traders with optimism, which can lead to a test of levels 1.1365 and 1.1410.

The USD / JPY pair was marked by a surge of volatility, but the situation from a technical point of view has not changed.

Exchange Rates 15.03.2019 analysis

Today, the Bank of Japan left the deposit rate at a negative level of -0.1%, and the target yield level of 10-year bonds is around 0% while stating that it still intends to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen per year. J-REITs annual purchase volume also remained unchanged at 90 billion yen.

The Bank of Japan lowered its estimate of export and production indicators due to the deteriorating economic situation in other countries, which has a negative effect on indicators. The regulator is also concerned about some of the slowdown in economic growth outside of Japan.

Jakub Novak
analytik InstaForexu
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