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The US dollar is strengthening its position against the euro and the British pound at a fairly calm pace. The absence of important fundamental statistics yesterday shows which side has the advantage.
Data on the growth of production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York allowed the US dollar to take a more confident position against a number of world currencies in the afternoon.
According to the report, the Fed-New York manufacturing index rose by 13 points this July and amounted to 4.3 points. Let me remind you that a positive value of the index indicates an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to be 1 point in July. The bank noted that about 30% of respondents reported a slight improvement in the business environment. Last month, the share of "positive-minded" was about 25%.
The outlook index for the coming months increased by 5 points and amounted to 30.8 points, while the index of new orders in July remains in the negative territory, amounting to -1.5 points.
Yesterday's report from Fitch Ratings was received by the market quite calmly since it is no surprise that the Fed is going to lower interest rates this year. Now the question is – how many such reductions.
Fitch expects that the Fed will lower rates in 2019 only once, and will lower them until the end of July or in September this year.
A good level of employment and fairly good data on the economy in recent years can force the Fed to lower rates this year only once, by 25 b.p. Economists also believe that the Fed's rate cut is unlikely to signal a series of subsequent cuts.
Yesterday, once again, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reiterated his call that the debt ceiling should be raised, as in case of failure to take such a decision in the first week of September, the Ministry will face significant problems. Mnuchin still does not expect to stop the work of the government due to the lack of consensus on the debt ceiling.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the trade continues to be conducted on a wide side channel. The lower limit is seen in the support area of 1.1240, the breakthrough of which will lead to the formation of a larger pressure on risky assets and, accordingly, to a decrease in the pair in the area of the lows of 1.1200 and 1.1160. If the movement starts to develop in a bullish scenario, the upward potential will be limited by the upper limit of the channel in the area of 1.1285, the breakthrough of which will give a confident bullish momentum to the pair in the area of highs 1.1330 and 1.1390.
The New Zealand dollar rose against the US dollar after today's report on the rapid growth of consumer prices in New Zealand in the 2nd quarter of this year. The growth was directly related to high fuel prices.
According to the data, the consumer price index (CPI) of New Zealand in the 2nd quarter increased by 0.6% compared to the 1st quarter and by 1.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The report fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.
As noted above, the rise in gasoline prices, which rose by 5.8% during the reporting period, stimulated the overall rise of the index.
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