17.07.201900:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. July 16. Results of the day. Reports from the United States were not needed, as the dollar resumed growth without it

4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 26p - 62p - 41p - 37p - 31p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 39p (39p).

Traders did not wait for Jerome Powell's speech in Paris and the publication of macroeconomic reports in the US, but just from the very beginning of the European trading session started to buy the US currency. We have repeatedly said that traders, as well as the media and analysts are paying too much attention to a possible reduction in the Fed rate, forgetting that the ECB rate remains 2.5% lower and can also be lowered at the central bank meeting in July. Moreover, this may happen sooner than a similar action from the Federal Reserve. What kind of fundamental support at this time can be discussed in the context of the European currency? Euro bulls could not even overcome the Ichimoku cloud in order to strengthen the "golden cross". Reports on retail sales and industrial production in the United States in June only complemented today's picture. The first report showed a larger increase than predicted (+0.4% m/m against the forecast of +0.1%), its derivative report excluding car sales also exceeded the expectations of traders, and the second report showed zero growth, but no one was forced to change their trading strategy on Tuesday, July 16. As a result, the euro/dollar pair fell to the first support level of 1.1213 and overcame the critical line Kijun-Sen. Thus, the trend for the pair has changed into a downward one, and the euro may once again begin to fall in price against the US dollar. On the eve of the meetings of the ECB and the Fed, this eloquently shows the mood of market participants and their expectations from these events.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD resumed its downward movement, breaking the Kijun-sen line. Thus, selling the euro with target levels of 1.1183 and 1.1157 are now relevant.

It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair not earlier than when you consolidate the price back above the critical line with the first target of 1,1306. In this case, euro bulls will get a new chance to form an upward trend.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.