empty
 
 
You are about to leave
www.instaforex.eu >
a website operated by
INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Open Account

14.08.201900:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Complex euro or why the euro does not want to fall

This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here.

Exchange Rates 14.08.2019 analysis

The EU has published a series of data, from which it became clear that consumer prices in Germany unexpectedly rose in July. This slight acceleration, hopefully, will not affect market expectations regarding a reduction in the ECB deposit rate, as well as measures to further mitigate monetary policy.

The European Central Bank made it clear in July that it was ready to lower short-term interest rates and restart a large-scale securities purchase program. In a statement following the meeting, financiers focused on the weakening economy of the region, and also expressed concern about global negative factors - trade conflicts and Brexit.

The next meeting of the ECB will be held on September 12. An impressive package of measures is expected to be taken that day, including a 0.25% rate cut and a restart of the quantitative easing program. This puts pressure on both the single currency and the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, several diverse factors are currently operating on the financial markets.

On the one hand, investors are worried about a new round of trade conflict between Beijing and Washington. The introduction of new import duties on Chinese goods and the "cross" put on Friday by D. Trump at the close of a trade deal increase the risks of a stronger slowdown in the global economy. On the other hand, the US economy looks quite stable when compared with other world giants, and continues to grow. Therefore, investments in US assets and the dollar continue to flow.

The owner of the White House constantly criticizes the Fed for refusing to follow his lead in the matter of rate adjustment. However, easing monetary policy is unlikely to fulfill D. Trump's desire, significantly weakening the dollar's position.

Exchange Rates 14.08.2019 analysis

"Hard" Brexit will nevertheless take place in late October. Political and economic disagreements within the EU are growing: the Italian League is against the EU fiscal policy and demands an increase in the country's budget deficit, which contradicts EU rules. Do not discount the sluggish processes with regard to the EU in Greece and Spain, as well as the accelerating devaluation of national currencies in some states. Three central banks - India, Thailand, New Zealand - have cut rates. All these are underestimated risks, which only add a portion of negativity to the mood of the business.

Given global geopolitical and economic problems, investors will prefer safe havens and the dollar. So, the shortest position on the EUR/USD pair will serve as the most profitable long-term strategy.

Exchange Rates 14.08.2019 analysis

Natalya Andreeva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024

Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.




You are now leaving www.instaforex.eu, a website operated by INSTANT TRADING EU LTD
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.

Turn "Do Not Track" off