The Pound / Dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed a high volatility of 123 points, having a rollback as a result after the recent rally. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a logical chain. The impulse move on March 13 led to the complete overheating of long positions, which provoked a stop in the region of the range level of 1.3300. And as a result, there was a recovery pullback to 1.3200. Information and news background does not let go of the participants of the roar, almost daily giving a new pill in the form of hype about Brexit. Yesterday, there was another vote in the British Parliament regarding the possible postponement of the date on the country's withdrawal from the European Union. Most of the deputies of the House of Commons (412 people) were in favor of postponing Brexit, 202 deputies voted against it. If before March 20, parliamentarians vote for an agreement with the EU, then the British government should send a request to Brussels for a technical delay until June 30. After this, the changes are to be agreed upon by the 27 member countries of the association.
I get the feeling that in March the British Parliament decided to comply with the entire working standard for the year with such permanent voting sessions where 650 deputies can not make a firm decision.
At the moment, Teresa May, roughly speaking, goes to blackmail, where she put the deputies with a choice: either you vote next week for an agreement with Brussels, which has already been rejected, or Brexit can be postponed for many more months. The latter option could theoretically turn into a mild outcome or not absent from the EU at all.
The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is quite saturated with statistical data. We are expecting the Fed meeting, as well as the next vote in the British Parliament, and the Bank of England meeting. Below, I selected the most significant events. We also do not forget about the information background, which spontaneously takes off on the market and brings us a new round of volatility.
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Average wage with bonuses (Jan): Prev. 3.4% ---> Forecast 3.5%
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK (Feb).
United States 17:00 MSK - Volume of industrial orders (m / m) (Jan): Prev. 0.1% ---> Forecast -0.5%.
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Feb): Prev. 1.8% ---> Forecast 1.9%.
United States 21:30 MSK - FOMC press conference.
Voting in the British Parliament under the Brexit Agreement.
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Basic Retail Sales Index (y / y) (Feb): Prev. 4.1% ---> Forecast 3.0%.
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): Prev. 4.2% ---> Forecast 3.4%.
Bank of England meeting
United States 17:00 MSK - Sales on the secondary housing market (Feb): Prev. 4.94M ---> Forecast 5.10M.
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a pullback, where the quotation is trying to go below the value of 1.3200, but still holding above, forming versatile candles. A discussion on the possible correction has been made by traders since Thursday, and it is not excluded, since there are so many nuances that will not allow the pound to grow in the medium term. Now, traders are carefully analyzing the value of 1.3200 for breakdown when laying short positons. At the same time, traders do not exclude that due to the pressure of the information background, we will get a temporary bumpiness of 1.3200 / 1.3300.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in case of fixation higher than 1.3260, with a primary perspective to 1.3300.
- We consider selling positions in the case and fixation is lower than 1.3200, with a prospect to 1.3170-1.1340-1.3170.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, there was a downward interest against the background of a rollback. Intraday and mid-term perspective fixated on a recent rally.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 15, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 62 points. If the quotation succeeds in leaving below 1.3200 and the full correction phase comes, the volatility may be slightly higher than the daily average. Otherwise, we will see a temporary chatting within the limits set out above.
Zones of resistance: 1.3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1,3200 *; 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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