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Although the data on the eurozone economy yesterday failed to please traders, as retail sales fell more than expected, which is sure to slow the pace of US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of this year, traders do not lose confidence before the meeting of the European Central Bank, which is scheduled for December 12 this year. It will be the first time the new ECB President Christine Lagarde will announce her interest rate policy. Also, buyers of risky assets feed some optimism about the general election in the UK, which will provide support for the euro and the pound in the event of a victory for the Conservative Party.

As noted above, retail sales in the eurozone failed to please traders, since in October of this year they fell by 0.6% and grew by only by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2018. For September, sales were revised up to -0.2% and 2.7% respectively.

Exchange Rates 06.12.2019 analysis

Given that the eurozone economy is already troubled and close to a technical recession, yesterday's GDP growth report for the 3rd quarter also disappointed. According to the data, GDP was not revised and showed growth of only 0.2% compared to the 2nd quarter, which fully coincided with the preliminary estimate and expectations of economists. On an annual basis, GDP grew by only 1.2%.

The data on the US economy was also not seen as a call to action. The US foreign trade deficit narrowed in October, but not enough to curb the ambitions of the US President. The decline was because imports of consumer goods continued to fall. According to the US Department of Commerce, the US foreign trade deficit in October 2019 amounted to 47.20 billion dollars, while economists had predicted it at 48.5 billion dollars. Imports fell by 1.7% in October. Unsurprisingly, exports also fell by 0.2% to $207.1 billion from $207.6 billion in September, a negative sign for the US economy.

Exchange Rates 06.12.2019 analysis

Weekly data on unemployment in the United States did not have an impact on the market, as all attention was transferred to today's report. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of November 24-30 fell by 10,000 to 203,000. Economists had forecast the number of applications to be 215,000.

Manufacturing orders in the US showed growth and fully coincided with economists' forecasts, which keeps the chance of a recovery in activity in the sector by the end of the year. According to the data, US manufacturing orders rose by 0.3% in October 2019, while orders excluding transportation rose only by 0.2% in October. US durable goods orders for October were revised up to + 0.5% from +0.6%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth can be provided only after a weak report on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the United States. Weak indicators will lead to the breakout of this week's highs and the continuation of the upward correction to the resistance of 1.1140 and 1.1180. The scenario of the unsuccessful breakdown of the level of 1.1115 and the downward correction to the lower border of the side channel 1.1065 seems to be more likely.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Eder Anderson,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2020
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