Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was trading in an absolute flat for the first half of the day on Wednesday, then it started to show very interesting movements in the afternoon. On the 30-minute timeframe, it is still not recommended to track signals from the MACD indicator, since there is no clear trend at this time, and the pair continues to be in a very limited price range. Thus, in order to consider any positions on this timeframe, you need to wait for the flat to finish. In general, the nature of the pair's movement does not change at all. There may be flat segments within the day, and relatively good movements. But in general, the picture does not change at all. The US currency remains weak, but the markets still cannot resume the upward trend. No macroeconomic report on Wednesday, no fundamental event either.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture is more interesting in the 5-minute timeframe. Moreover, it allowed novice traders to make money on such a move, which in a good way should not even be considered. Nevertheless, some interesting signals have formed today, and let's start looking at them. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the pair traded for several hours exactly along the level of 1.2181, eventually gaining a foothold above it. From our point of view, such a fuzzy signal should not have been worked out, so we will not take it into account. However, if the newcomers still opened long positions here, they made a profit of 28 points, since the price reached the 1.2215 target level. Even if traders relied on Take Profit, it also worked, as the price went up after the 30-point signal was formed. But a strong sell signal was already formed around the level of 1.2215 in the form of a rebound . It was necessary to open short positions here, which also brought 28-30 points of profit, as the price fell to the level of 1.2181. The last two signals should not have been worked out, since it was close to night, and any signal needed at least a few hours. Therefore, we do not recommend opening positions at the end of the working day. So today beginners could earn at least 30 points according to our recommendations, and we congratulate them on this.
Trading tips for Thursday:
The downward trend is cancelled on the 30-minute timeframe, so the pair is outside of any trend. Formally, we can say that an upward trend has now begun, but in fact the pair continues to remain between the levels of 1.2110 and 1.2260. This is not a horizontal channel, however, it is not a trend. The pair can move in any direction from the current positions with the same probability. Therefore, we still do not recommend tracking any signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute timeframe. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels of 1.2159, 1.2181 and 1.2215. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to break even when the price passes in the right direction 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level, as long as it is not too close or too far away. If it is located, then you should act on the situation. There will be events that deserve attention both in the European Union and in the United States on Thursday. A very important report on inflation will be released in America, and if it turns out that it accelerated in May to 4.7% y/y or even more, then this may provoke a new fall in the US currency (=growth of the euro/dollar pair). The European Central Bank meeting, the summing up of its results and the press conference with its President Christine Lagarde are also important events, but they are more difficult to predict. Therefore, beginners should be prepared for sharp price reversals or increased movement at least twice tomorrow.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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