04.11.202508:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 4

The US dollar experienced slight pressure after the data; however, this did not lead to significant changes in the positioning of pairs with risk assets.

Weak data from the US ISM manufacturing index pressured the dollar yesterday. The index remained below 50 points, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity and raising concerns about the US economy's prospects. Traders perceived this as a signal of a potential slowdown in economic growth, which further pressured the dollar. Many fear that deteriorating conditions in the manufacturing sector could negatively impact overall economic growth.

Today, in the first half of the day, there will be a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Investors and analysts are eagerly awaiting their comments, especially in light of recent Eurozone inflation data and the ongoing discussion about future monetary policy. The market will closely monitor any signals on how the ECB intends to act going forward and whether it will support economic growth amid instability. In this context, Christine Lagarde's speech as the head of the ECB is particularly significant. Her stance, strategic vision, and approaches to managing the Eurozone economy directly impact financial markets. Attention will focus on her assessment of the current economic situation, forecasts, and, of course, plans for further central bank actions.

Joachim Nagel's comments will also carry substantial weight. As Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank exerts significant influence over ECB policy. His remarks regarding inflation, interest rates, and the overall state of the German economy can provide valuable insights into sentiment within the ECB and potential future decisions.

As for the pound, given that there are no UK data due today in the first half of the day, all attention will be focused on the speech by Sarah Breeden, a member of the Bank of England's Financial Stability Committee. The market will closely scrutinize her comments on the financial system's stability and the inflation outlook for clues about the central bank's future actions. Given the recent volatility in financial markets, Breeden could have a significant impact on the pound sterling exchange rate in the short term.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1530, which may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1580 and 1.1610.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1500, which may result in a decline toward 1.1461 and 1.1431.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3131, which could lead to growth in the pound towards 1.3161 and 1.3188.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3100, which may result in a drop to 1.3064 and 1.3034.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 154.31, which could lead to an increase in the dollar to around 155.77 and 155.23.
• Sell on a breakout below 153.84, which could trigger a sell-off in the dollar toward 153.46 and 153.09.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1525, waiting for a retreat below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1499, anticipating a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3142, waiting for a retreat below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3105, anticipating a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6545, waiting for a retreat below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6519, anticipating a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4078, waiting for a retreat below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.4041, anticipating a return to this level.