16.04.201812:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 16/04/2018

Contrary to the majority of the market participants expectations, the S&P rating agency decided to increase the outlook for Poland's rating from stable to positive. The agency expects a strong expansion of the economy in 2018 in view of solid external demand, generous transfers from the EU and the resilience of the foundations of the Polish economy. The revision also points to the growing conviction that reforms of the tax administration have generated a secular increase in public revenues at the level of about 0.5% of GDP. The latter issue could have outweighed the change in the rating, despite maintaining the opinion on the presence of a number of risks, including an increase in the budgetary pressure on the part of the shrinking and aging working-age population.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/PLN technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair stability this morning suggests that a part of the PLN strengthening at the end of last week could be matched by the positioning of investors in the event of a revision of the outlook, as a result of which the continuation of the strengthening is not certain. The market has slipped towards the parallel channel lower line around the level of 4.16, which is as well the technical support for the price. The market conditions look oversold, so the bounce towards the nearest technical resistance is possible soon. Nevertheless, the PLN remains dependent on fluctuations in external sentiment and the recent improvement in sentiment is conducive to EUR/PLN slippage, although, in the wider perspective, the market is not clearly visible.