23.02.201809:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Weak inflation will create problems for the Euro

Yesterday, buyers of the American currency ignored the good economic performance for the United State. But during the Asian session today, the demand for the dollar recovered.

According to the data, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time had decreased and this indicates excellent labor market indicators.

Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week is from 11 to 17, it fell from 7,000 and amounted to 222,000 this February. While economists had expected the number of applications to reach 230,000.

Also, positive changes were seen in the US business trend. According to the Conference Board report, the leading indicator index in January 2018 increased by 1.0% to 108.1 points. While economists expected that the index will grow by 0.7%.

The manufacturing activity index in the Midwest showed growth. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the composite production index in February for this year rose to 17 points against 16 in January.

Positive indicators of the American economy will continue to support the US dollar. And given the yesterday's minutes of the European Central Bank, the pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair may return next week. Today, we can expect a slight recovery on the trading instrument due to profit taking on short positions.

Be reminded that yesterday, the evaluation of the ECB minutes shows the bank leaders at the January meeting regarded inflation will remain too low. This further suggests early changes in the monetary policy.

Today, it is necessary to pay attention to the inflation data in the euro area. Since this indicator, like in the United States, is currently decisive and the behavior of the regulator towards interest rates depends on it.

It is expected that the January consumer price index of the eurozone this year will grow by 1.3% compared with the same period in 2017, followed by the same increase of 1.3% in December. The base consumer price index is projected to show an increase of 1.0%. If the data prove to be worse than economists' forecasts, the pressure on the single European currency may resume, which could lead to the renewal of major targets of the euro sellers aspired earlier this week.

The targets test again the support level at 1.2200, but it is necessary to overcome first the support area 1.2270, where a significant bullish volume was traded yesterday.

In case of the pair's reversal and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2330, one can also expect a larger upward correction of the trading instrument, with an update of resistance at 1.2370 and 1.2410.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.