18.12.201801:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. December 17th. Results of the day. Inflation in the EU did not meet expectations

4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 92p - 94p - 72p - 62p - 95p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 83p (77p).

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Monday, December 17, which started at the end of Friday. Initially, it was interpreted as a correction, but at the moment the pair has already overcome the critical line. Thus, there is even more reason to assume that the pair is in the area that is lateral in nature, in other words flat. The current growth of the European currency is completely at odds with the nature of the only, but very important, macroeconomic report that came from Europe. The consumer price index in November in annual terms was 1.9%, although the forecast was 2.0%. However, this is a very important point(!), traders did not continue to sell the euro. And this is despite the fact that in recent months, traders had the tendency to buy US dollars and sell euro currencies. Thus, we believe that the pair has entered a wide side channel and it will be quite difficult to leave it before the new year. It was not possible to leave the pair below the level of 1.1270, but also above the level of 1.1420 too. Between these two levels, steam can move in the coming days or even weeks. Based on these considerations, technical factors can have a very indirect impact on the movement of the currency pair. Signals from Ichimoku can be formed frequently and be false. The Bollinger band can also often change the direction of motion. Only a very strong and important information can make the pair leave the designated range.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is currently being adjusted. Thus, in case of a reverse consolidation of the price below the Kijun-sen line, it will be possible to open new shorts with the target at the level of 1.1270. There is a high probability of flat.

Long positions will become relevant not earlier than overcoming the Ichimoku cloud with targets 1,1408-1,1420. It will be quite difficult for the pair to gain a foothold above this zone in the current conditions, without fundamental support.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.