18.04.201909:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading Plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 04/18/2019

Only investors were in a positive mood and prepared to make wholesale purchases of a pound with a single European currency, as the sad news came again. Inflation in the United Kingdom did not grow as expected but remained unchanged while in Europe, the total confirmed the preliminary estimate and inflation fell from 1.5% to 1.4%. By contrast, data on inventories at wholesale warehouses in the United States were better than expected, as they grew by only 0.2% instead of the expected 0.5%. oddly enough, this was enough for investors to believe in the dollar even more and even forgot that these same stocks have been growing for fifteen months in a row.

In fact, today is the last working day and tomorrow marks as non-working holiday Good Friday in Europe. On this pre-holiday day, oddly enough, a lot of interesting macroeconomic data that will give considerable food for thought just at the time of prayer. Thus, the growth rate of retail sales in the United States should accelerate from 2.2% to 2.7%, which is naturally impressive, especially if we recall the recent increase in inflation. However, the growth rate of retail sales should also accelerate from 4.0% to 4.6% in the United Kingdom, which to some extent compensates for the disappointment with yesterday's inflation data. In addition, preliminary data on business activity indices will be published in both Europe and the United States. The forecasts for the Old World are rather moderately optimistic since the business activity index in the services sector should decrease from 53.3 to 53.2. However, in the manufacturing sector, it grew from 47.5 to 47.9. In sum, this should give rise to a composite index of business activity from 51.6 to 51.8 but in the United States, the expectations are not so optimistic, as the business activity index in the service sector can be reduced from 55.3 to 55.0 and also the production index can fall from 52.4 to 51.8. Hence, we are waiting for a decline in the composite index of business activity from 54.6 to 54.0 and of course, they are once again waiting for an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. If the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits can grow up to 7 thousand, then the number of primary applications can increase as much as 11 thousand. Regardless, the significant increase in retail sales will smooth all this negativity.

The euro/dollar currency pair continues to fluctuate within the level of 1.1300. It is likely that the amplitude fluctuation within 1.1290/1.1320 will continue and concentrate closer to the upper boundary.

The pound/dollar currency pair felt temporary support in front of it after approaching the lower limit of the range move at 1.3030, resulting in stagnation. It is likely to assume that instability continues around 1.3030/1.3050, where it is worth tracking down the fixation points outside the borders to place trade orders.