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4-hour timeframe
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
CCI: -133.4496
Friday's publication of the inflation rate in the eurozone did not help the euro, although it did not fail, as is often the case in recent years with reports from Europe. However, traders once again turned to sales of euro and purchases of the dollar, because they did not find any reason to change the basic trading strategy. As we have repeatedly written, in 2019, which is clearly seen on the higher timeframe, the trend for the euro/dollar pair is clearly downward, moreover, each peak of the euro rate is lower than the previous one, which is a distinctive feature of a confident downward trend. Thus, in the near future, we expect a decline to 1.1100, and subsequently lower. On the first trading day of the week, May 20, no important and significant macroeconomic publications are planned.
Donald Trump briefly turned his attention from China and the European Union to Iran and has already managed to write in his Twitter that Iran will come to an end if the country wants to fight with the United States. These words were a reaction to the fact that Iran has ceased to adhere to the agreements on the nuclear program, mobilized its groups for a possible attack on the US military (according to US intelligence). There is no new information on the topic of trade wars, so on Monday, we expect very calm and balanced trading, without changing volatility.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1108
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1169
R2 – 1.1230
R3 – 1.1292
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to move down and overcome the level of 1.1169. Thus, sell orders remain relevant to the target of 1.1108.
It is recommended to consider trading for an increase in the pair with extreme caution and small lots not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line with the first goal of 1.1230. The next target is 1.1260.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.
Youngest linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
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