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21.05.201913:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Italian behind-the-scenes games can be the main driving force for the euro

Long-term review
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The EUR/USD pair quickly lost the points scored yesterday with the target at the area of 1.1150.

It is assumed that if the pair drops below the level of 1.1100, this will mark the breakthrough of an important support level and cause more intense pressure on the bears.

Exchange Rates 21.05.2019 analysis

According to experts, the EUR/USD pair is stronger this week than all the others threatened by a surge in volatility.

Tomorrow, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will give a speech. It is possible that investors will look in the words of the head of the ECB for hints on the specific parameters of the next program of long-term lending to banks and on possible incentives.

On Thursday, there will be releases of eurozone business activity indicators, which will help to form an updated assessment of the state of the currency block economy.

In addition, elections will be held in the European Parliament (from 23rd to 26th May) this week. At the moment, there is a tense struggle between supporters and opponents of the EU and the main issue remains the degree of support that populists enjoy. If euro skeptics succeed in taking a significant number of seats in parliament, they can stop any progress for the next 5 years.

Exchange Rates 21.05.2019 analysis

According to Citi experts, after May 26, when the results of the elections to the European Parliament will be made public, backstage games of Italian politics can become the main driving force for the euro.

"The European elections will determine the balance of power within the Italian coalition. The results in favor of the right wing are likely to mean further confrontation with the EU. Moreover, the confident victory of the right-wing candidates may result in new elections in the country, "said Citi representatives.

Analysts believe that the threat of a change of power in Italy, along with the uncertain situation around Brexit and weak macroeconomic indicators in the EU, will hamper the strengthening of the euro.

In particular, Deutsche Bank revised downward forecast for EUR/USD pair from 1.25 to 1.13 for 2019.

Viktor Isakov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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