12.06.201910:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of EUR/USD on June 12. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Mario Draghi may notify the markets of his intention to lower the rate

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 95.9383

On Wednesday, June 12, the euro/dollar pair maintains an upward trend. A small correction is over, and the bulls continue to hold the pair in their hands, which was not for a long time. The first 5 months of 2019 were definitely bearish. Now, the euro currency has received tangible support from the failure of macroeconomic statistics from overseas, from the "dovish" rhetoric of Jerome Powell and Trump's actions on the world stage. However, with all this, traders overlooked for some reason the "dovish" attitude of the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi, who also indicated the intention to reduce the rate and extend the bond redemption program. And unlike the Fed rate, the ECB rate risks falling into the negative zone. Today will be the speech by the head of the ECB, which may again sound the need to stimulate the economy of the European Union. If traders do not ignore these words, the euro will be able to start a new round of correction to the moving average line. However, there will be counterbalance to Mario Draghi's performance factors today. From the States, information about inflation for May will be received today. According to experts' expectations in annual terms, the consumer price index will slow down from 2.0% to 1.9% y/y. The main question is: will the real value of inflation be higher or lower than 1.9%? If higher, the US dollar will receive fundamental support, if lower – it risks further worsen its position against the European currency.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1322

S2 – 1.1292

S3 – 1.1261

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1383

R3 – 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, now it is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair again with the targets at 1.1353 and 1.1383 before the new turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator down.

It is recommended to sell the euro after the bears return the initiative to their hands and the euro/dollar pair will consolidate below the moving average with the first targets at 1.1261 and 1.1230.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.