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By the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 59 points. As a result of which, it returned to the previously found resistance.From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the amplitude process of 1.2500 / 1.2570 remains in the market, where the quotation is hidden within the upper limit, which reflects the point of the cluster from July 3-4. As written in the previous review, traders as much as possible recorded previously open long positions. After which, they took a waiting position, tracking clear breakdowns of existing boundaries. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the downward trend persists in global terms, where the point of support is the range level of 1.2500.
The information and news background last Friday only contained data on producer prices in the United States, where they waited for a decline from 1.8% to 1.6%, and as a result, they received only almost unchanged 1.8% ---> 1.7%. Information background begins to revive again in anticipation of the verdict on elections in Britain. British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt believes that the failure of negotiations on the conclusion of a new agreement on the conditions for Britain to withdraw from the European Union will lead the kingdom to early parliamentary elections. He also stated in his appeal to one-party party: "I ask you to vote with your head, and not only with your heart. The wrong approach to the negotiations, will get the election, not Brexit. "
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any solid data on Britain or the United States. Thus, it will only remain to observe the possible information background.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote fluctuates within 1.2570, forming a kind of slowdown. It is likely to assume that, theoretically, the preservation of fluctuations in a given framework is probably 1.2500 / 1.2570, but traders are more focused on their breakdown, thereby taking a waiting position. In a global review, a downward trend and short positions in it are considered by traders, but all in due time.
On the basis of the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:
- Positions for the purchase, as written earlier, went to the process of fixation. Any further transactions will be considered after a clear fixation above the 1.2590 cluster.
- Positions for sale are considered in two versions: First, lower than 1.2550, with the prospect of 1.2520-1.2510; The second option, after a clear price fixation below 1.2500.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short and intraday perspective have upward interest against the background of the corrective movement. On the other hand, the medium-term perspective keeps the downward interest against the background of a general decline.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 15 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 24 points. It is likely to assume that the volatility will be clamped in the frame if the current amplitude is maintained. But in the case of the breakdown of existing boundaries, we can see an increase in volatility.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300
Support areas: 1.2500; 1.2430 *; 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
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