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4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 63p - 59p - 44p - 69p - 59p.
Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 59p (63p).
The third trading day of the week was held in exactly the same as the first two. The euro/dollar pair can not get out of the side band, although the Bollinger bands began to expand. However, it is difficult to say in which direction they started to expand; probably sideways. Thus, the bands' expansion indicates an increase in volatility and expansion of the side channel, but not about the beginning of any trend. Change in industrial production for June was published in the eurozone today. It turns out that the most optimistic forecasts, predicting a reduction of 1.2%, were not destined to come true. Industrial production in Europe fell by 2.6% yoy and 1.6% mom. The preliminary value of GDP for the second quarter was fully consistent with analysts' forecasts, + 1.1% yoy, however, given the decline in industrial production, a drop in GDP can also be predicted, as the value for the second quarter is not final. Such statistics could well bring down the euro currency, however, it was not enough for traders to return to the foreign exchange market. Nonetheless, the pair was in a flat for 5 days. Therefore, we can say that the euro was lucky today. However, growth prospects for this currency remain very deplorable. It is still not clear why the EU currency can show growth against the US dollar only if America and Trump begin to help the euro in this. Donald Trump can or at least really wants to help, because he does not need an expensive dollar, and through the Federal Reserve he cannot lower the dollar as much as he wants. However, through the incitement of trade wars, which negatively affect the economic performance of the United States, and through the eternal pressure on the Fed, Trump can still slightly lower the dollar. But for now, participants in the forex currency market are still leaning toward new euro-currency sales and dollar purchases.
Trading recommendations:
EUR/USD continues to trade inside the side channel. Thus, it is recommended to wait for the completion of the flat, the expansion of the Bollinger bands in one direction. Only after that will it be possible to return to trading on the euro/dollar pair.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
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