06.09.201911:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 09/06/2019: Family Drama

The problem with all the series is that every next season is almost certainly worse than the previous one. But this does not apply to our favorite Brexit series. Indeed, real life is always much fuller and more interesting than any fiction. The third season was supposed to be the shortest, which began with the entry of Boris Johnson into the post of the prime minister, and most importantly, the final. Indeed, real life is always much fuller and more interesting than any fiction. The third season, which began with the entry of Boris Johnson into the post of the prime minister, was supposed to be the shortest, and most importantly, the final. However, although it may turn out to be the shortest, it already breaks all box office records and prepares us for the next season most importantly. Moreover, unlike the previous two seasons, the intensity of passions only increases, as now the family drama has also been added to the plot. Joe Johnson, who is another Johnson but with a tidier haircut, left the UK government due to disagreements with his Brexit brother. After the conservatives lost their majority in the House of Commons, this casts even greater doubt on the implementation of Boris Johnson's plan to hold early elections on October 15. Voting on this issue is scheduled for Monday and it is highly likely that Labor, led by Jeremy Corbin, will agree to an early election but only on October 29. by the way, Jeremy Corbin himself clearly marks for the role of the protagonist in the fourth season of the series, which was loved by all speculators. Nevertheless, the most important thing so far is that unfolding events reduce the likelihood of the onset of the Apocalypse in the form of an unregulated Brexit, which has a beneficial effect on the value of the pound.

The single European currency was also glad that the threat of the most terrible horror stories for the night had somewhat diminished. True, the joy was short-lived as the common European currency for some reason remembered that the consequences of an unregulated Brexit for it were an order of magnitude less frightening than for the pound. Just as soon as the common European currency remembered this, it began to glance with interest towards the United States, where a whole series of macroeconomic data was published. What they saw led the single European currency to such a gloomy state that it immediately returned to where it started yesterday. The highlight of the program was the ADP data on employment, which showed its growth by 195 thousand with a forecast of 149 thousand, whereas in the previous month, employment increased by 142 thousand. However, these data precede the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor. In addition to this, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 38 thousand, although they expected a decrease of 17 thousand. True, this happened solely due to repeated applications for unemployment benefits, the number of which did not fell by 16 thousand, but by 39 thousand. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 1 thousand, instead of decreasing by 1 thousand. It is no less curious that the growth rate of labor productivity did not slow down from 2.3% to 2.2%, but remained unchanged. Curiously, productivity growth has not slowed from 2.3% to 2.2% but has remained unchanged. Also, production orders increased by 1.4%. So the single European currency really was a sad thing. The only thing that somehow restrained the growth of the dollar was the final data on the Markit business activity indices. It is worth recalling that the preliminary estimate showed a decrease in the index of business activity in services from 53.0 to 50.9, and the composite index from 52.6 to 50.9. However, the final figures showed a decline in both figures to 50.

Employment Change from ADP (USA):

Today, the focus is on the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, which will determine the mood of market participants over the next few days at least. If you look at the forecasts, they are somewhat alarming. In particular, 158 thousand new jobs were to be created outside agriculture, compared to 164 thousand in the previous month. Also, the growth rate of average hourly wages may slow down from 3.2% to 3.1% and only the average working week should increase from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours. All other indicators should remain unchanged. However, given yesterday's data on employment, there is every reason to believe that the contents of the report will be slightly better than forecasts. Moreover, do not forget about Jerome Powell's words about the current state of the labor market, which he described as the best in history. Indeed, at the moment, more jobs are being created than necessary, since the pace of their creation exceeds the rate of growth of labor. As a result, it turns out that there is nothing to worry about even if the pace of creating new jobs slows down. Moreover, it will be quite normal, since there is no point investing in creating jobs for which it is impossible to find appropriate workers. But the main conclusion from all this is that the state of the labor market is clearly not conducive to even thinking about easing the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Even if the pace of job creation slows down, there's nothing wrong with that. Moreover, it will be quite normal since there is no point investing in creating jobs for which it is impossible to find appropriate workers.

The number of new jobs created outside agriculture (USA):

It is worth paying attention to the fact that today the final data on the GDP of Europe for the second quarter are published, which should confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 1.2% to 1.1%. Hence, the single European currency should fall to 1.0975.

The significance of the report of the United States Department of Labor is so high that even true Brexit fans will be forced to switch the channel for a while. True, this does not bode well for the pound. Although the pound itself grew solely on the background of information, and not on real economic grounds, so it really needs to be somewhat adjusted. In other words, it is worth waiting for the pound to drop to 1.2175.