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The single European currency pretty much left from side to side. That's just the result of all these throwings, zero, because they stayed exactly in the same place where the day started. Initially, the dollar strengthened vigorously, amid weak totals on business activity indices in Europe. Thus, the index of business activity in the services sector decreased from 53.5 to 51.6, and not to 52.0%, as a preliminary estimate showed. The composite index of business activity was supposed to decline from 51.9 to 50.4, but in fact, it fell to 50.1. Naturally, this alignment does not add optimism to the single European currency. In addition, the growth rate of producer prices gave way to a decline, from 0.1% to -0.8%, although they expected a decline of 0.5%. And perhaps, the only thing that could please investors was retail sales. The growth rate of which slowed down from 2.2% to 2.1%, with a forecast of 1.9%.
However, the dollar failed to consolidate the success, which was already extremely insignificant. This happened due to weak macroeconomic data in the United States itself. The first thing that catches your eye is applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which has decreased by 1 thousand. Although the figure is ridiculous, you need to understand that they were waiting for a decrease of 11 thousand, which is in anticipation of the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor. The data on business activity indices completely coincided with the forecasts, and confirmed the preliminary assessment. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector increased from 50.7 to 50.9, and the composite index from 50.7 to 51.0. On the other hand, the index of business activity in the service sector from ISM, declined from 56.4 to 52.6. Thus, the multidirectional movement of the two indices somewhat confused the market participants. Finally, the dollar's positions was undermined by production orders, which, after increasing by 1.4%, decreased by 0.1%. In fairness, it should be noted that they expected a decrease of 0.2%.
Production Orders (USA):
Today, all attention is only on the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, which can determine the mood of market participants in the coming weeks. On the positive, all indicators should remain unchanged, with the exception of the number of new jobs created outside agriculture, which should be 145 thousand, against 130 thousand. This suggests that the pace of job creation is increasing, and the situation on the labor market is improving. However, given the recent data on ADP and applications for unemployment benefits, there is not a zero chance that the data will turn out worse than expected, which will become a reason for a serious correction for the dollar. And the fact that it is brewing was seen yesterday, when, against the background of extremely weak data on Europe. The single European currency was extremely reluctant to give up its positions but not so terrible data on the United States, led to a sharper movement.
The number of new jobs created outside agriculture (USA):
The EUR / USD pair moved closer to the psychological level of 1.1000 once again, where they felt resistance and slowed down as a fact. In fact, we got amplitude fluctuation with an approximate frame of 1.0960 / 1.0990 by the end of the day, and a control resistance in the form of a psychological level (1,1000). Considering what is happening in general terms, we see a correctional phase in a downward trend, with a support level of 1.0880.
It is likely to assume that the amplitude fluctuation of 1.0960 / 1.0990 (1.1000) will continue for some time, where it is better not to rush and work precisely on the breakdown of the main boundaries. The driver of the jumps, of course, will be the statistics, as I wrote above.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see a characteristic versatile interest, with respect to all the main time intervals. This is due to the correctional movement, which gradually turned into accumulation. That is, the minute intervals took a neutral line. The sentries began to work on correction (upward interest), but the day period due to correction changed the downward interest to neutral.
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