11.10.201911:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading strategy for EUR/USD on October 11th. Will Draghi make another rate cut in his last month as ECB chief?

EUR/USD – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the correction level of 127.2% (1.1024) and rebound from it. Despite this rebound, which implied a reversal in favor of the US currency and some drop in quotations, the euro/dollar pair remained around the level of 127.2%. Also, the pair quotes closed above the upper line of the downward trend channel, which means the end of the downward trend with a high probability. Thus, the level of 127.2% remains on the path of the euro to new heights, overcoming which will allow traders to expect continued growth towards the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1106).

For the European currency, yesterday was quiet and calm. The information background was present but did not impress the traders too much. In the morning, there was an increased demand for the EU currency, but after a few hours, it was replaced by an apathetic movement of the euro/dollar pair to the side. The only interesting report – the inflation report – turned out to be very uninteresting for traders, as it showed the absence of changes in one of the most important indicators for the Fed. Traders also expected to see an acceleration to 1.8% - 1.9% y/y. All the other news of the day, which was not much, the euro and the dollar did not relate much.

Of the most interesting events on Friday, I note the fact that today, there will be talks between China and the United States on a trade agreement at the highest level, that is, in the White House. The negotiations will be conducted directly by Donald Trump, who started this trade war. According to preliminary information, the Chinese side, after the story of the possible impeachment of the US President (which has not yet been completed), decided to significantly tighten its position in the negotiations. According to the same information, preliminary negotiations between delegations have not yielded any results. However, quite unexpectedly, Donald Trump said yesterday that "the negotiations are very constructive." However, the US president did not say how constructive they are, and whether this is "constructive" enough to conclude a trade agreement or at least cancel the increase in import duties from China from 25% to 30% from October 15, too. Also, I do not rule out the option in which there is no progress in the negotiations, this is only a small curtsey of Trump addressed to the Chinese Minister before a personal conversation. However, today we will find out all the details.

Not only China-US trade negotiations will attract the attention of traders today. ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in a couple of hours, and traders will be watching his rhetoric closely. Recently, opinions regarding the next ECB meeting and its results have been divided among traders. Some believe that Mario Draghi will not make changes to monetary policy in the last month of his job. Someone believes that Christine Lagarde will also cut rates, so Draghi will not interfere with her further work if she also lowers the rate in October. Well, for the euro currency, any hint of a new rate cut is a negative factor.

What to expect from the euro/dollar currency pair today?

On October 11, traders continue to hold the euro/dollar pair near the correction level of 127.2%. Closing quotes above the level of 12.7% will significantly increase the probability of continued growth of the pair. However, Mario Draghi's speech may change the mood of traders on the last trading day of the week.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

I recommend selling the pair today with a target of 1.0802 if the close below 1.0918 is executed. A stop-loss order above the level of 1.0927.

It will be possible to buy the pair after closing above the correction level of 127.2% with the target of 1.1106 and the stop-loss order below the level of 1.1024.