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As soon as it became clear that the resolution of the issue with Brexit was postponed for another three months, and the UK entered early elections, immediately, contemplation of the pound schedule became one of the most boring activities in the world. Virtually nothing happens. The sluggish and dull, almost invisible downward movement is strictly in the logic of the disparity in interest rates, since the Federal Reserve has a higher refinancing rate than the Bank of England. One should also note such a point as the fact that since the date of the early parliamentary elections was set, no serious macroeconomic data for the UK have been published. On the other hand, the pound was in no hurry to respond to US data. However, this cannot go on forever.
A meeting of the Board of the BoE on monetary policy will take place today, the results of which can bring some kind of diversity to the dull picture. To some extent, the BoE can now be called the most stable central bank in the world, except for the Bank of Japan. After all, Mark Carney has repeatedly stated that until the Brexit story ends, all the parameters of the monetary policy pursued by the BoE will remain unchanged. So no one has any doubt that today everything will remain as before. It is not strange, but in the current conditions this can provide support to the pound, since amid the actions of the Fed and the European Central Bank, to mitigate its monetary policies, the stability of the BoE looks good. It's another matter that the support will not be long, as the BoE's actions are completely predictable, and no one will cancel some uncertainty regarding the Parliamentary elections.
Bank of England Refinancing Rate (UK):
GBP/USD has been acting extremely sluggish for quite some time, but it's worth paying tribute to, the development of the control level of 1.3000 was successful and we gradually went down. So, in terms of volatility, there is a literal trouble, its average value is 65 points, which is expressed in narrow but consistent moves on the market. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see all the same movement between the key levels of 1.2770/1.3000, which has stayed on the market for three weeks already. A breakdown of these values could give a new wave of emotion as a fact of volatility, but so far we have what we have. It is likely to assume that a sluggish downward interest will still remain in the market towards the level of 1.2770. At the same time, at the time of the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England, a local upward interest could theoretically occur, but it will probably occur in the pullback phase.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.2865.
- We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.2835.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that only in terms of minute intervals there is a variable upward interest in the stagnation phase. In the remaining time periods, a downward mood remains.
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