25.11.201900:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. The trade war between the United States and China may end in armed conflict

As the trade conflict between the United States and China continues, during which the parties regularly declare "progress in the negotiations,'' more and more stumbling blocks arise in the negotiations. Recall that initially, in the first months of the conflict, Donald Trump accused China of a whole series of "crimes against America," among which the theft of intellectual property and unfair trade policies between countries, after which he introduced duties on a number of Chinese imports. From this moment, a series of introduction of duties by both parties began. It is worth noting that constantly until the present moment, the parties actively participated in the negotiation process, but they could not agree on anything. We note that the 13th round of negotiations has recently ended with exactly the same successes as the previous 12. The parties obviously do not want to make concessions, with each of the countries having its own version of the trade war, none of which clearly implies its speedy conclusion . China, obviously, does not want to sign an agreement that is beneficial for the United States and not advantageous for itself. It does not want to specify a particular amount for which it annually undertakes to purchase agricultural products in America the "first phase" of the agreement, and it is also not afraid of slowing its economic growth and slowing down GDP growth. It can also be assumed that Beijing is ready to wait until next November for a possible change in the president, since it is precisely because of the trade war with China that Trump may not be re-elected for a second term, believing that it will be much easier to agree with the next president. America, which, in fact, started this war can not back down and accept China's conditions, it is Trump who needs to end the trade war as soon as possible in order to regain popularity among the population, but he cannot end this conflict without victory. Thus, Donald Trump actively and regularly through the media declares that it is China that needs a trade deal with America and that Beijing needs to rush into its conclusion, otherwise new economic sanctions and duties will be introduced against it.

Realizing that Beijing was ready to wait a long enough amount of time, and taking advantage of the turmoil in Hong Kong, Washington began to put new pressure on China. The US Senate passed a bill on human rights in Hong Kong, which implies that the area may lose a huge number of preferences in relations with America if it loses its autonomous status. Loses not only on paper, but in real life. The story began with the fact that China set out to pass a law on the extradition of any Hong Kong citizen, which, in the opinion of the United States, is a deprivation of autonomy. Moreover, Washington opposes the containment by the Chinese side of the riots in Hong Kong, which emerged because of the extradition law. China immediately accused the United States of interfering in China's domestic policy and demanded that Trump veto the Senate's decision. However, firstly, Trump's decision is still unknown, and secondly, for America, this situation is a new advantage in negotiations with China. All that remains now is to understand whether Beijing will continue to resist and the trade conflict will continue to blaze or whether it will begin to fulfill Trump's will.

Meanwhile, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said the trade war could end in a global armed battle that would be worse than World War I. According to Kissinger, a hundred years ago, Great Britain wanted to restrain the growing strength of Germany, but now Washington is trying to restrain growing China. "At the moment, we can observe the struggle of civilizations of the West and the East, and the trade war is just one of the tools of counteraction," Kissinger said. In addition, the former secretary of state adds that, "a hundred years ago, weapons were relatively weak, but now the destruction and consequences of the conflict can be catastrophic, so wars should be avoided by any means."