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The US dollar has turned from yesterday's favorite into an outsider.
Good day, colleagues!
This week, the interesting and much-loved AUD/USD pair has not yet been considered. I consider it necessary to fill this gap.
Since there were no macroeconomic statistics from Australia this week, we will pay full attention to events from the US. After all, the US dollar will remain the main currency on the Forex market.
If you go back to yesterday's statistics from the United States, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week has increased significantly, which is not surprising in the context of the rampant COVID-19, and yet...
Experts expected that the number of applicants will grow to one million, but even the most ambitious forecasts were not fulfilled. The actual figure was at the level of 3 million 283 thousand applications for unemployment benefits. This is the highest figure since the 60s of the last century!
You can only imagine how terrifying the official data on the US labor market will be, which will be released next Friday. It's all the fault of the damned coronavirus, which affects more and more people on different continents and in different countries. Despite the fact that one week in the current situation is a fairly long time, it is unlikely that the situation regarding the pandemic will change dramatically. Many experts believe that the peak of the epidemic will come only in April, and that is not a fact.
Against this background, the US dollar has turned from yesterday's favorite into an outsider and is losing across the entire spectrum of the currency market.
Weekly
The weekly chart of the AUD/USD currency pair shows the formation of the Harami reversal model. The current five-day trading opened slightly higher than the closing price of the previous week's trading. If the current candle is inside the body of the previous one, it will become a reversal pattern. However, the Harami model often requires confirmation, so you should not rush to specific conclusions. This is still just a guess. In addition, over the next weekend, events may occur that will affect the change in market sentiment, and Monday's trading may open with a gap in one direction or another.
In the meantime, judging by the "week", the pair has every chance of a reversal or a continuation of the corrective pullback. In the second scenario, the following possible growth targets will be the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 0.6165. The farther correction target is Kijun, located at 0.6271. However, the price is still far from the last. I believe that the minimum task for the bulls on the "Aussie" will be to close the current five-day trading above the important psychological and technical level of 0.6000.
Daily
On the daily chart, the pair corrected to 38.2 Fibo from the fall of 0.7032-0.5511, then rested on the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, meeting strong resistance near it.
In my opinion, much will depend on the formation of today's candle. If it is executed as a reversal model, we can assume that the correction of the Australian dollar has come to an end and AUD/USD will resume its downward dynamics.
Conclusion and recommendations:
At the moment, in the context of a large-scale weakening of the US dollar, it is difficult to determine whether it is a trend change or a correction of the US currency to its previous strengthening.
In such circumstances, it is not easy to give specific trade recommendations, since there is still no clear idea about the current weakening of the US currency. If you make a forecast, I will venture to suggest a reversal of the upward trend of the US dollar. The fundamental reasons will be a significant drawdown in the labor market caused by COVID-19, and the technical ones will be the candlestick signals that will appear at the end of the current week.
For those who definitely want to open new positions on AUS/USD today, I can suggest considering buying the "Aussie" after a decline to the key level of 0.6000. Sales can be aggressive and risky to try with the current prices (0.6063), it's less risky to wait for a rise to the area of 0.6160-0.6200 and when reversal candles appear on the daily, 4-hour or hourly charts, open short positions on AUD/USD.
Good luck!
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