30.03.202006:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 30. Donald Trump refused to impose a quarantine in New York state – the most infected state and city with the COVID-2019 virus

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 159.8508

The new trading week begins very well for the euro. However, this increase in the euro is not caused by positive statistics from the eurozone, but by the same panic that the markets cannot cope with in the last month. Coronavirus continues to draw in more victims. According to official information, as of March 30, the number of cases of the pandemic worldwide is 685,000. However, we are all well aware that the real numbers are much higher. After all, the figure of 685,000 clearly does not take into account the millions of inhabitants of the planet who simply did not pass the test for "coronavirus" or have already fallen ill, but do not yet experience any malaise due to the sufficiently long incubation period of COVID-2019. So there is nothing to be happy about. We have already suggested several times what might happen to the global economy and the entire world if the epidemic is not overcome in the next month or two. It is good that the death rate from the virus is low. However, this death rate can still mean hundreds of thousands of human victims around the world. Bad for the economy. According to various experts, the downturn may be worse than during the mortgage crisis of 2008 and even worse than during the great depression in America. Only this time, the depression will concern not only the US but the whole world. Forecasts of a global economic downturn vary from one to two percent, to 30-50%. And all experts agree that everything will depend on the duration of the pandemic. Doctors, and indeed all the inhabitants of the planet, have hopes that with the arrival of the warm season of the year, the virus will not be so acute. In principle, this is normal for most subspecies of the SARS virus or, more simply, the flu. However, no one can say with certainty that the level of diseases will go down in a month.

In the United States, 125,000 people have now been infected with the coronavirus. However, President Donald Trump does not consider it necessary to impose a quarantine in the country's most infected state of New York. It is in the state and city of New York that the largest number of infected and dead from the pandemic has been recorded. However, we have already realized that for Donald Trump, the economy is much more important than people. "On the recommendation of the White House task force and after several conversations with the governors of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, I directed the centers for disease control and prevention to issue urgent relocation recommendations for the population. At this time, no quarantine is required," Trump said. However, according to US media, it was the governors of the above-mentioned States who opposed Trump's initiative to introduce a "strict" quarantine in order to prevent the spread of infection to other States. For example, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said that the state has already introduced quarantine measures, and it is unacceptable to block new York since this will affect the economy of the entire country. Thus, it is very difficult to understand Trump's true intentions. Then the US leader calls for all Americans to abandon the quarantine and go to work in two weeks, then Trump wants to introduce a quarantine, but he is "hindered" by the governors. It is difficult to say what is actually happening in the highest power in the United States. In such a situation, it is best to pay attention to and respond to specific actions and measures taken by the US government. According to many experts, if Donald Trump cancels the quarantine, the epidemic will not just go to the second round, it will grow even faster. Although the States are already recording exponential rates of infection growth. They will only accelerate. Leading infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists of the country predict that there will be a shortage even of stretchers for all those in need. The health care system may simply collapse... It should be noted that despite the criticism of Trump, so far the head of the country is quite resistant to the epidemic. The 2 trillion-dollar measures to help the economy, coupled with weakening monetary pressure from the Fed, revived the stock market, which showed growth from a minimum point of 10%. However, according to many world experts, this is far from a victory. The most difficult part of the confrontation is ahead. We still need to put people and human lives at the top of our priorities. If Trump adheres to this particular priority, the economy will collapse and it is unlikely that he will be re-elected in November, because Trump considers his main merit to America to be the high economic growth rate, which could reach "pre-Trump levels" by November 2020. However, in the current situation, it is not clear what will happen in November. Maybe there will be no elections because of the difficult situation in the country. However, if Trump decides to save the country's economy for the sake of personal political ratings in the run-up to the election and is defeated, the States may enter a depression for years to come. Therefore, we believe that it is on the further actions of Trump that the prosperity of America depends. For all three years of his rule, Trump has shown himself as a President who is ready to act for the good of his country. His actions were not always approved, and perhaps no American President had as many enemies as Trump. However, right now, for the odious US leader, there comes no, not "hour X", but "period X". A period when you will need to make really good decisions, otherwise the country will collapse.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair continues its upward movement, as evidenced by the Heiken Ashi indicator. Thus, trading for an increase remains relevant. On Monday, March 30, the United States and the European Union are not scheduled for important macroeconomic publications. Thus, it is unlikely that traders will be affected by the macroeconomic background. However, the panic in the markets does not subside, so you should be prepared for sharp reversals and high volatility.

The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains at record high values, but still gradually decreases. The current average is 171 points and the last six days have shown volatility below 200 points per day. On Monday, March 30, we expect a further decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited to the levels of 1.0965 and 1.1307.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1108

S2 - 1.0986

S3 - 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues its strong upward movement. Thus, market participants are now recommended to remain in purchases of the euro with the targets of 1.1230 and 1.1307 levels until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to sell the EUR/USD pair not before fixing the price above the moving average line with the goal of the Murray level of "1/8"-1.0864. When you open any position, it is still recommended to be more cautious as the situation on the market remains turbulent.