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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the English currency and anchored above a weak downward trend line. Thus, the growth began and a new upward trend corridor was built, which defines the current mood of traders as "bullish". However, as early as April 9, the pair can perform a consolidation under this corridor, which will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall. In the UK, they are not going to cancel the quarantine caused by the coronavirus infection yet. This was stated yesterday by the Minister of Health of Great Britain, Edward Argar. Also yesterday, it became known that in the UK, more than 1,000 people died from the epidemic during the day, which is a record value. The total number of patients – 61,000 and 7,000 deaths. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, according to the latest information, has got a little better. This was stated by Finance Minister Rishi Sunak.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2303). Thus, the growth can be continued on April 9 in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516). At the same time, trading remains unclear, so the pair may perform a reversal in the near future in favor of the US dollar and begin the process of falling. It will be possible to identify the beginning of this process by fixing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2303). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
GBP/USD – Daily.
The daily chart shows a new grid of Fibo levels from the peak on December 13 and low on March 20. The pair's quotes rebounded from the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2215), a reversal in favor of the British currency and began the growth in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2463). The daily chart shows the clearest and accurate picture. A pullback of quotes from the 50.0% level will work in favor of the US dollar and fall in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2%. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the pair's chances of further growth towards the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2711).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown on the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Wednesday, no economic reports were released again in the UK and the US. All news is related to new cases of COVID-2019 virus, as well as the state of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and had no effect on the mood of traders.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
United Kingdom - change in GDP (08:00 GMT).
United Kingdom - change in industrial production (08:00 GMT).
United States - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (14:30 GMT).
United States - Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will deliver a speech (16:00 GMT).
On April 9, the news calendar, in addition to important events in the US, also includes reports on industrial production and UK GDP. These data have already been released this morning and GDP fell in February by 0.1% m/m, and production - by 2.8% y/y.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the activity of major market players continues to fall, as evidenced by the decreasing number of short and long contracts. Moreover, speculators get rid of both types of contracts, which indicates their low interest in the British as a trading instrument. Hedgers hold more contracts in their hands but usually trade against the main trend. Thus, I would say that it is the fall in the British dollar's quotes that are more preferable, despite the overall advantage of long-term contracts. Tomorrow, a new COT report will be released, which will show how the mood of major players has changed over the past week.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I believe that we should consider selling the British dollar with a target of 1.2095 today. However, to do this, you need to get a signal about the closing of quotes on the 4-hour chart at the level of 50.0% (1.2303). Purchases are still considered impractical, despite the closing above the trend line and the level of 50.0%.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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