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10.04.202009:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: First day of oil consensus

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Exchange Rates 10.04.2020 analysis

Russia and Saudi Arabia came to a common consensus to reduce oil production on Thursday, April 9. All OPEC countries will reduce production by 10 million in May and June.

Saudi Arabia and Russia will reduce to 8.5 million All OPEC countries agree to cut supplies by 23%.

Gradually, due to quarantine withdrawal, production will decrease from 10 to 8 million bpd from July, and then to 6 million bpd from 2021.

"Both Saudi Arabia and Russia will still have to reduce, and these cuts will also allow them to win political points," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspect Ltd.

According to delegates, in addition to the planned reduction of 10 million barrels, OPEC expects the G20 countries to cut 5 million per day.

The Kremlin insists that America must do more than just allow market forces to reduce its own record production. US President Donald Trump said that the reduction in his country will happen "automatically", as low prices put the shale zone in a difficult situation.

"The US has already reduced because we automatically cut with falling oil demand," said James Lucier, managing Director of research firm Capital Alpha Partners LLC. "We are not a state corporation or government oil producers. The reduction of production automatically occurs with falling demand and excess of supply in the U.S.," he said.

Trump pressed Russia and Saudi Arabia to trim production, but did not agree to a reduction in his country together with other producing countries. Instead of agreeing amicably, he and his representatives said that the free, and absolutely free, market automatically restricts production in the country, and the government did not even lift a finger.

US Energy Secretary Dan Bruillett in support of Trump emphasized that the incredible drop in oil prices has already led to a complete halt in production and drilling rigs, the dismissal of personnel, etc. And the Department of Energy showed figures to prove its innocence.

So, the first day of the meeting has passed, the results are clear, all in anticipation of the second day.

Large manufacturers are trying to come to an agreement, as energy consumption has plummeted and prices have fallen. Demand for oil in India fell by as much as 70%, and some US refineries faced closures.

In this situation, over the past three decades, demand has fallen to its lowest level. Manufacturers are simply obliged to agree.

Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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