01.06.202013:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR / USD: Euro's recovery and continuation of US-China trade war

Investors welcomed Trump's decision on Friday not to immediately end the special privilege regime for Hong Kong and not change the parameters of the trade deal between Washington and Beijing.

In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, said the Central Bank which is actively building up its balance sheet, has not even come close to any limits.

Against this background, the USD index reached its lowest level since the middle of March at around 97.8 points.

It would seem that rumors about the expansion of the European QE should have led to sales of the euro, but at the end of spring, the EUR / USD pair soared into the area of two-month highs, thanks to the expectations of new steps by the ECB to save the eurozone economy. If the regulator adds at least € 500 billion to the quantitative easing program, Italian bonds may be the best four-week rally since 2003, and a drop in their yield will indicate the end of the storm in the European debt market.

The ECB meeting is undoubtedly a key event at the beginning of summer. In May, representatives of the financial institute talked a lot about the need to expand the quantitative easing program, and market participants almost believed that the regulator would bring QE to € 1.6 trillion.

According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, previous forecasts for a 5% decline in Eurozone GDP in 2020 are likely to be outdated, in fact, the region's economy could shrink by 8%-12%. The deterioration of its prospects, along with a slowdown in inflation in the currency bloc to 0.1%, is a strong argument in favor of a further weakening of the ECB's monetary policy.

An important driver for the growth of EUR / USD is calm in the debt markets of the Eurozone. A decrease in the yield differential of Italian and German government bonds signals a decrease in political risks in the EU, as well as unity in the ranks of the alliance. It is enough to recall how the euro soared after the victory of Emmanuel Macron over the Eurosceptics in 2017 to understand how important the common future of the eurozone countries is for the common European currency.

Of course, the success of the EUR / USD bulls would not have been so impressive if it were not for the rally of US stock indices, forcing investors to dismiss defensive assets.

Obviously, the American economy has plunged into a deep hole. In April, consumer spending in the United States fell 13.6% after a decrease of 6.9% in March. According to forecasts by Bloomberg experts, employment in the country's non-agricultural sector will decrease by another 8 million after a decline of 20.5 million in April, resulting in unemployment rising to 19.5%, reaching its highest level since the Great Depression. However, investors, apparently, still believe in a V-shaped recovery of US GDP in the second half of the year.

Under such conditions, only very bad news can trigger a wave of stock sales. The market expected that such would be large-scale US sanctions against China due to the introduction of the national security law in Hong Kong. However, the White House was actually limited to half measures, which allows the EUR / USD bulls in the event of a successful assault of resistance at 1.1150 to count on the continuation of the rally in the direction of 1.1220 and 1.1240.