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EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! The euro/dollar pair on the hourly chart on June 1 continued the growth, although it did not update the high of the previous trading day. Thus, it is better to say that the "bullish" mood has completely remained, and the pair's quotes remained within the ascending trend corridor. Thus, before the pair closes its rate under this corridor, bull traders have an excellent opportunity to continue buying the euro currency. All traders are now very much interested in the question, what is happening with the US dollar? If only the euro grew last week, then the pound joined it at the beginning of the new week. Of course, the reason may lie on the surface. Mass riots and protests continue in the US, and there are victims every day. President Donald Trump believes that it is possible and necessary to suppress protests and mass riots with the use of the army, however, the military itself believes that the army can not be used inside the country. Trump calls on state governors to quell any unrest as quickly as possible, and also calls what is happening "domestic terrorism". How these events will end in the United States is quite difficult to guess.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair resumed the growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1167) after a minimal correction and formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. The rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the pair's fall in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1065). Fixing the pair's exchange rate above the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1167) will increase the pair's chances of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 76.4% (1.1294). No indicator has any pending divergences today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair made a consolidation above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1064), as well as above the downward trend corridor, which is no longer working. Therefore, the growth can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1167).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the euro/dollar pair performed a rebound from the lower line of the "narrowing triangle", which still allows traders to expect growth in the long term in the direction of the 1.1600 level (the upper line of the "triangle"). Closing the pair under the "triangle" will work in favor of the US currency and a new, possibly long fall.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 1, the European Union and the United States released indices of business activity in manufacturing. Both did not arouse much interest from traders, who were more interested in events in the US and the government's reaction to them.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
No economic reports or events are scheduled for June 2 in Europe and the US. Thus, the information background of the economic plan will be empty. However, this does not mean that there will be no news in principle.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report, which was released on Friday, showed a very unexpected increase in the number of long contracts in the hands of the "Commercial" group. Their number increased by 7,500. Although this increase was "unexpected" only if we looked at the data from previous COT reports. For most of the past week, the European currency has been growing, so it could be assumed that demand among major market players for the euro is growing. I also note the overall increase in both long and short contracts by 9,000 and 10,500. As you can see, the total number of short contracts even showed a greater increase than long. This suggests that the markets are now driven by speculators. Namely, speculators opened short-contracts very reluctantly.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with the goal of 1.0964, if it is fixed under the ascending channel on the hourly chart. You could buy the pair by fixing quotes above the horizontal trend line with the goal of 1.1065, and at the moment, the targets are already the levels of 1.1167 and 1.1294.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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