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To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need:
From a technical point of view, nothing changed in the first half of the day, except that the bears formed a sell signal for the pound, which I spoke about in my morning forecast. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how sellers are approaching the resistance of 1.2463, the test of which forms a sell signal and begins a rapid decline in the pound. However, it is not quite correct to say that the bears have regained control of the market since trading remains on a side channel. In the case of a repeated test of the resistance of 1.2463, its breakdown may take place in the second half of the day, however, I recommend opening long positions from there only after fixing above this level, in the expectation of updating the highs of 1.2536 and 1.2607, where I recommend fixing the profits. Also, buyers need to protect the support of 1.2395, where only the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions in the expectation of a return to the resistance of 1.2463, where the moving averages pass. In the first half of the day, the pair did not reach the level of 1.2395. If there is no activity in the support area of 1.2395, it is best to abandon long positions before updating the minimum of 1.2334 and buy the pound there for a rebound in the expectation of correction of 30-40 points within the day. Also, do not forget about the interest of major players.
To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need:
The bears achieved their goal and actively returned to the market after updating the resistance at 1.2463. However, this only led to a downward movement of 35 points, after which the pressure on the pound eased, which threatened to take sellers out of the market if they returned to the range of 1.2463 again. It is best to sell from this level in the afternoon only after the formation of a false breakdown. However, as long as the trade is below 1.2463, it is correct to count on updating the support of 1.2395, which is the first target of the bears for today. Its breakdown will take place only in the case of good data on the US economy, as data on retail sales and the Bank of England's minutes did not put pressure on the British pound in the first half of the day. A breakout of 1.2395 will open a direct path to the minimum of 1.2334, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the bulls are stronger and break above the level of 1.2463, it is best to postpone short positions until the major resistance is updated at 1.2536 and sell the pound from there for a rebound in the expectation of correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50 daily averages, which act as a resistance for buyers.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
Only a break in the upper limit of the indicator around 1.2460 will strengthen the demand for the pound. A break in the lower border of the indicator at 1.2395 will lead to another wave of decline in the pair.
Description of indicators
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