Stay 
Trading Conditions
Products
Tools
EUR/USD – 1H.
On September 30, the EUR/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1695), rebounded from it, turned in favor of the EU currency, and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1762). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of 1.1695. The number 1 topic of yesterday was the summing up of the televised debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Both politicians, according to the media, did not show their best side, the debate was called a failure and chaotic, some media even use the word "shameful". Meanwhile, in Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde made a speech that said that the Central Bank can turn a blind eye to the growth of inflation above targets to compensate for periods when it was at extremely low levels. This is what Jerome Powell was talking about a few weeks ago. However, in America, there is now an inflation rate of 1.0-1.5% y/y. And in Europe, deflation. Many people were skeptical of Powell's words since it is not clear when inflation will return to the target 2%, even if it was not always possible to achieve this level even in calm, pre-crisis years. And we can't even talk about the Eurozone right now. We will have to wait several years for the consumer price index to return to 2.0%.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair have consolidated above the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729), which now allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the upper border of the side corridor, from which it left a few days ago. However, the brewing bearish divergence in the MACD indicator also allows us to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a sharp reversal in favor of the EU currency and began the process of returning to the weak level of 261.8% (1.1825). However, a drop in prices still looks more likely.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On September 30, in addition to Christine Lagarde's speech, two rather important reports were released in the United States. The first (the ADP report) showed that the number of employees increased by 749 thousand during September, although traders expected a lower value. US GDP in the second quarter was -31.4%, although traders expected a weaker reading. However, these two reports did not help the US currency during the day.
The news calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08:00 GMT).
EU - unemployment rate (09:00 GMT).
US - number of primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 GMT).
US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 GMT).
On October 1, the calendar of economic events contained several relatively important reports. Most attention should be paid to the US ISM index.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was again very interesting. A week earlier, it turned out that the "Non-Commercial" group was actively getting rid of long-term contracts for the euro currency. This week, the COT report showed that speculators were again actively increasing long-contracts for the euro. There were 15,499 of them open. This group of traders also opened short contracts in the amount of 5,890. A week earlier, I concluded that the mood of traders is changing in the direction of "bearish", however, the new COT report showed that it is again becoming "bullish". This means that the pair's fall may end in the near future. Moreover, there are five times more long contracts than short contracts in the hands of speculators. This means that professional traders are counting on the new growth of the European currency.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.1608, if a close is made under the level of 127.2% (1.1729) on the 4-hour chart and bearish divergence is formed. I recommend buying the pair today if it closes above the level of 100.0% (1.1762) with the target level of 76.4% (1.1821).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
