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19.10.202008:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Mad passenger

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Exchange Rates 19.10.2020 analysis

Last Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson bluntly stated that if the European Union fails to renegotiate the terms of the Brexit trade agreements, the deal will not happen.

The EU issued an ultimatum on Thursday, saying that it sees no progress and suggested that London concede on key issues, otherwise the agreement between the countries will not take place.

"I conclude that by January 1, we should be ready for a treaty that will be similar to the Australian one, based on simple principles of free trade," Johnson said.

"It is with great pleasure and full confidence that we will accept the alternative and be glad to thrive as an independent free country in free trade. And independently setting its own laws," Johnson added.

At the end of Friday's summit in Brussels, EU heads of government said they intended to continue negotiations and would like to reach an agreement, but not at any cost.

Europe's most powerful leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it would be better to reach a mutual agreement, but compromises would be needed on both sides. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron added that Britain needs a Brexit agreement more than the other 27 EU countries.

A spokesman for Johnson said that the negotiations are over and it makes no sense for the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, to come to London next week.

But according to Downing Street, Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost agreed to perform again early next week.

Johnson's move was regarded by EU diplomats and officials as little more than rhetoric, depicting a mad passenger jumping into the last car of a departing train in an attempt to get concessions at the last moment before an agreement was reached.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that he believed Johnson had made it clear that London was ready to compromise.

Upon getting asked if Johnson was withdrawing from the talks, Boris said: "If there is a drastic change in approach, of course we are always ready to listen." However, that didn't look particularly encouraging after the Brussels summit.

"If there is no radically changed approach, we will choose a solution like with Australia," he said.

The so-called "deal with Australia" means that the United Kingdom will trade on the terms of the World Trade Organization: as a country without a trade agreement with the EU, such as Australia, tariffs will be imposed in accordance with WTO rules, which will probably lead to significant price increases.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that she was interested in an agreement, even though Macron was more gloomy.

"The state of our negotiations is not about the issue of fishing, which is a tactical argument of the British, but that we stumble on all issues," said Macron. "The other 27 EU leaders who chose to stay in the EU did not come here just to please the British Prime Minister."

Merkel called on the UK to compromise. "This, of course, means that we will also have to make compromises," she said.

Fishing and the so-called level playing field-rules aimed at preventing a country from gaining a competitive advantage over trading partners remain as the main stumbling blocks.

Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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