20.10.202014:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR / USD: Deadline of negotiations on the coronavirus relief bill. Positive news on COVID-19 vaccine.

The euro has been trading within the 17th figure for three weeks already, failing to breakout from the current price range because of the limited upward and downward impulses. Euro bulls have tried to overcome the support level of 1.1630 (the lower border of the Kumo cloud, coinciding with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart), however, their attempts failed, and it formed a local "price bottom" in the EUR / USD pair instead. In addition, the quote has not returned to 1.1630 since then, and has touched the upper border, 1.1850, only once in the last three weeks.

Clearly, both the bulls and the bears lack the needed strength to control the trend, and to add to that, both the euro and the dollar are subject to pressure from their own problems. As a result, the EUR / USD pair is floating in a fairly wide price range, but it may change soon because today's events can stir up the market and provoke increased volatility.

The first factor that could influence the market is the situation with the coronavirus. Any news about the re-implementation of strict quarantine restrictions in Europe could lead in the collapse of the euro in the market.

Meanwhile, the second factor is the political situation in the United States, however, global issues such as the trade relationship between the US and China is not that significant because the US elections will be held in two weeks, and whoever wins the race would have complete control over this.

It is actually the developments on the long-disputed coronavirus relief bill that would affect the market, especially since today is the deadline of its negotiations. If the Congress fails again to agree on a stimulus package, businesses would be affected, which could result in a new wave of layoffs, which would deal another blow not only to the labor market, but also to the US economy as a whole. The US will have to continue to rely only on stimulating monetary policy, and this fact will put pressure on the US dollar.

So far, there are discouraging talks that say the Congress will never come to an agreement, which suggests that the key issue for the US economy will be postponed for several weeks, and possibly for several months.

Back to the topic of coronavirus, the strong pressure exerted on the euro was partly offset by the positive news regarding a vaccine, as according to pharmaceutical company Moderna Inc, the interim results of its trials will come out as early as next month, while in December, the drug may receive official approval for use from the federal authorities. Such allowed the European currency to rise a bit, after declining sharply for many days.

In the meantime, the euro bulls could hit the jackpot, because if the US fails again to settle on a stimulus package, the euro would be able to test the upper border of the price channel (1.1630-1.1850). Thus, long positions may be opened from current positions, targeting a rise towards price level 1.1850. However, if the upward impulse fades away, it is advisable to change into short positions, as a too-expensive European currency will prompt the ECB to take action.