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EUR/USD – 1H.
On October 22, the EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling and rebounded from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1859). Already tonight, the pair's quotes also performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1812). Thus, traders can now expect to continue falling towards the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.1765). Meanwhile, there wasn't much news yesterday. The most interesting event of the day happened tonight when the last stage of the TV debate between Donald Trump and Joseph Biden took place in America. Let me remind you that the first stage was a failure and "shameful", as the American media called it. Both candidates constantly insulted each other, however, the victory was still awarded to Joe Biden. The last stage of the debate was almost friendly, however, there are still mutual accusations. On the whole, however, the debate was civilized this time. Traders were even happy about this, and the US dollar rose slightly overnight.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the graphical picture remains very boring, as the pair continues to trade inside the side corridor. There was no rebound of the pair's quotes from the upper border of the side corridor, thus, it is now quite difficult to assume the further movement of quotes. One thing is for sure, they are still moving sideways.EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes returned to the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), which is not a strong level, and fixed above it. However, today the pair can perform consolidation under this level. I remind you that the side corridor on the 4-hour chart is more important now.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On October 22, there were no significant events or economic reports in the European Union. In America, a report on applications for unemployment benefits was released, which turned out to be quite good. At least, it did not spoil the "bearish" mood of traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08:00 GMT).
EU - index of business activity in the services sector (08:00 GMT).
EU - composite PMI (08:00 GMT).
US - manufacturing PMI (13:45 GMT).
US - services PMI (13:45 GMT).
On October 23, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States contain only business activity indices for various sectors of the economy, which will make it clear whether the economies of these countries have started to slow down again.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was quite revealing. The most significant and important category of non-commercial traders continues to get rid of long contracts for the third week in a row, closing another 2.5 thousand during the reporting week. Also, about 5 thousand short contacts were opened, thus, the mood of major players concerning the European currency became more "bearish" again. Thus, there is reason to assume that the euro currency can complete its victorious march and start falling again in a pair with the dollar. The total number of long contracts focused on the hands of speculators remains several times more than short contracts. However, this gap has been narrowing in recent weeks. The "Commercial" category of traders, on the contrary, gets rid of both contracts, but to a greater extent from short contracts, working in contrast to speculators.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with targets of 1.1765 and 1.1707, as the close was made at the level of 50.0% (1.18120 on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair will now be possible with the goal of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027) if the consolidation is performed above the side corridor on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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