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EUR/USD – 1H.
On October 27, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and resumed the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.1765). Also, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation under the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1812) and under the triangle in which they had spent several days before. The rebound of quotes from the level of 38.2% will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of 1.1812, fixing under this level will increase the chances of a further fall. Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to try to put pressure on Joe Biden less than a week before the official election date. This time, at one of his campaign speeches, Trump said that Americans are voting and will not vote for Trump or Biden, but for "super-recovery of the country or depression". Trump means that with him, the country will quickly recover from the pandemic crisis, and with Biden, it will plunge into a multi-year depression. However, the voters themselves think differently. A week before election day, Biden's campaign ratings remain higher at 11%. This is exactly the advantage the Democrat had a week ago and a month ago. Thus, the balance of power between the two contenders has not changed. And it is unlikely to change. Americans are already voting without waiting for November 3. More than 60 million voters have already voted across the country. And the euro/dollar pair is waiting for the results of these elections. Let's not be misled by the drop in quotes yesterday, the main thing is the side corridor on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the graphical picture remains very boring, as the pair continues to trade inside the side corridor. There was no rebound of the pair's quotes from the upper border of the side corridor, so there was no signal to sell. Fixing the pair's rate above or below the corridor will allow traders to expect growth or fall, but so far the quotes are sitting tightly inside the corridor and do not think about leaving it.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes returned to the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), which is not a strong level, and are now trading near it. However, on the 4-hour chart, the pair remains inside the side corridor, which is the most important thing right now.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On October 27, there were no news and reports in the European Union, and in America, there was a report on orders for durable goods, which, however, did not interest traders at all.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On October 28, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are empty, so the influence of the information background will be absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was rather boring and uninformative. The most important category of non-commercial traders increased only 1 thousand long contracts and 700 short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, changes in their mood can be described as minimal and insignificant. Over the past few weeks, changes in this category are generally quite weak. Only on October 6, a fairly strong drop in the number of long contracts was registered. However, it is the lack of serious changes among speculators that reflects what has been happening on the market in recent months. Namely, trade in the side corridor. We are less interested in other categories of traders, but in any case, there are no major changes that deserve attention.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.1707, if the consolidation is made under the corrective level of 38.2% (1.1765) on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair will be possible with targets of 1.1765 and 1.1812 if the quotes perform a rebound from the lower border of the side corridor on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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