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EUR/USD – 1H.
On November 11, the EUR/USD pair performed a new fall under the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1774). After that, an upward pullback began. If the pair again performs a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidates under the Fibo level of 61.8%, the process of falling quotes will resume in the direction of the levels of 50.0% (1.1742) and 38.2% (1.1709). Meanwhile, "the saga of the election" in the United States continues. However, it is not clear whether it is gradually decreasing or is preparing to take a completely different look? Donald Trump has said several times that he does not recognize the election results, sometimes hinting and sometimes openly stating that the Democrats falsified the results of the vote. However, the election was held more than a week ago, the votes in almost all states were counted, so if Donald Trump is going to do anything, then it should be done now. The more he delays, the more society begins to believe that the US President will not actually do anything in this direction. And why? Because for this purpose it has no real opportunity (to challenge the results). But at the same time, more and more analysts agree that Trump actually admits defeat, but at the same time wants to slam the door of the White House loudly. Simply put, make life as difficult as possible for future US President Joe Biden. As long as Trump refuses to recognize the results of the election, Biden, for example, cannot access the funds with which he should start preparing for his presidency. That's $ 6 million for a second.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the upper border of the side corridor and continue the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729) and the lower border of the corridor. A rebound of the pair's quotes from the level of 127.2% will work in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of 1.1907. Fixing under the side corridor will increase the chances of further decline in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the US dollar and consolidated under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825). However, this level remains weak, and now we need to pay more attention to the lower charts, which respond more quickly to changes in the market.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term. In the short term, a drop is preferable.
Overview of fundamentals:
On November 11, the European Union and America did not have a single economic report. ECB President Christine Lagarde made a speech that day, however, there was nothing important in it, so in general, the information background was almost absent.
The news calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - change of industrial production (10:00 GMT).
US - consumer price index (13:30 GMT).
US - number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (13:30 GMT).
US - Chairman of the Board of Governors Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (16:45 GMT).
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (16:45 GMT).
On November 12, the calendar of the European Union and America includes speeches by the presidents of the Fed and ECB, as well as a fairly important report on inflation in the United States.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was quite informative. The most important category of "Non-commercial" traders got rid of another 9 thousand long contracts during the reporting week (-12 thousand a week earlier), so speculators continue to get rid of purchases of the euro currency. At the same time, they are also increasing short-contracts, the total number of which has increased by 7.8 thousand. Thus, the strengthening of the "bearish" mood is evident. Based on this, I could conclude that the European currency will fall further, but last week's trading may change the mood of major traders dramatically. The euro has grown by 250 points over the past week, however, this growth is not taken into account in the COT report. Only the next report will show how big traders traded after November 2.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1742 and 1.1709, if the pair closes again at the level of 61.8% (1.1774) on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair will now be possible with the target of 1.1907 if the quotes perform a rebound from the lower border of the side corridor on the 4-hour chart or the level of 127.2% (1.1729).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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