24.11.202013:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the American session on November 24 (analysis of morning deals)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I recommended opening long positions after forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.1844, which, to be fair, we did not wait for. The pair went down to this level and almost tested it, however, it did not reach the real entry into the market. On the 5-minute chart, I marked the point where a false breakout could take place. The growth of the euro in the resistance area of 1.1890 occurred against the background of good statistics on the German economy, which in the 3rd quarter of this year showed a larger growth than expected. The bears have already defended the 1.1890 level twice, forming an entry point for short positions from it.

In the second half of the day, a breakout and consolidation above the 1.1890 resistance will still be required to maintain the bullish momentum. A test of this level from top to bottom on volume forms a good entry point for long positions to continue the upward trend, which will be aimed at updating the maximum in the area of 1.1929. A longer-term goal will be the area of 1.1064, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, it should be remembered that in the second half of the day, there are quite important data on the consumer confidence indicator in the United States, which may lead to a decline in the euro. In the scenario of falling EUR/USD, it is best not to rush with purchases, but to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1844. I recommend opening long positions immediately for a rebound only after updating the minimum of 1.1802, based on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The bears achieved their goal and did not let the pair go above the resistance of 1.1890, forming a false breakout there and a convenient entry point for short positions. As long as the trade is conducted below this range, the sell signal will work itself out, and the nearest target of the bears will be the support of 1.1844, where I recommend fixing the profits. With good indicators of consumer confidence in the US, a break and consolidation below 1.1844 will increase pressure on the pair, which will open a direct road to a minimum of 1.1802. Going beyond this range will mean a resumption of the bear market. If the EUR/USD pair continues to strengthen and the resistance breaks through 1.1890, it is best not to rush into sales, but wait for the new high of 1.1929 to update and sell the euro from there immediately to rebound, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for November 17 recorded an increase in long and short positions. So, long non-commercial positions increased from the level 202,374 to the level of 203,551, while non-commercial short positions increased to 69,591 from 67,087. The total non-commercial net position fell to 133,960 down from 135,287 weeks earlier. It is worth noting that the delta has been declining for 8 consecutive weeks, which confirms the lack of desire of euro buyers to go to the market in the current conditions. It will be possible to talk about a further recovery of the euro only after European leaders "settle" their differences with Poland and Hungary, and the UK agrees with Brussels on a new trade agreement. Otherwise, we will have to wait for the lifting of restrictive measures imposed due to the second wave of coronavirus in many EU countries.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to continue pushing the market up.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1890 will lead to new growth of the pair. If the euro declines, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1820 will provide support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.