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The last trading day was one of the most dynamic in recent times. The EUR/USD quote showed activity in just two hours, comparable to the amplitude for the last week.
We can say a lot about the fact that the slowdown in the period earlier led to the accumulation of trade forces and that there was an acceleration of activity from the level of interaction of trade forces 1,1890/1,1900/1,1920.
It is no secret that yesterday, Mr. Donald Trump ordered the beginning of the transfer of power to Joe Biden. In fact, Trump has accepted defeat and Biden is considered the official winner and the new President of the United States.
The information was received tonight but there is an assumption that such valuable information was shared in a narrow circle before the official statement. Under the noise of positive statistics on the US business activity index, traders decided to buy the US Dollar.
The above is just a theory, but similar actions with early insider information were repeatedly encountered by traders from Wall Street.
The second theory, which will complement the first, is that Joseph Biden plans to nominate former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen for the post of Finance Minister.
This information could have leaked earlier than the official statement to the same insider circle, and since we are talking about the banking sector, the candidacy of Janet Yellen plays in favor of Wall Street and possible stimulus injections into the economy.
Now let's look at price fluctuations from the point of view of technical analysis.
The market has been at a standstill since November 17, where the coordinates 1.1815/1.1900 served as variable boundaries. Activity was reduced to the limit. Sometimes it seemed that even speculators left the market. Area of interaction of trade forces 1,1890/1,1900/1,1920 withstood the onslaught of buyers, at the same time, it played the role of a lever that pushed sellers to inertia.
In simple words, the sale of the Euro was in the area of accumulation, which already exerted pressure on buyers, and a local break higher than the highs of November 17,18,20 led to the triggering of stop orders. As a result, we got inertia in the direction of 1.1800, where there was a recovery almost immediately.
Returning to the market dynamics for November 23, we can see that the highest activity recorded for 10 trading days was at 105 points, which is 35% higher than the average level.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), it is clear that the quote is at the top of the upward tract from the beginning of November, which returned the quote to the upper limit of the medium-term sideways trend.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have statistics on Europe and the United States that are worth paying attention to, but based on practice, this does not stop speculators.
Analyzing the current trading schedule, you can see that the quotation of the Asian and European sessions actively restored positions in the Euro, which led to another touch of the area of interaction of trade forces 1,1890/1,1900/1,1920.
The area, as before, was maintained. The volume of long positions decreased, which returned the quotes to the variable coordinate of 1.1850.
The coefficient of speculative operations is growing, which has a positive effect on the market dynamics but the quote is squeezed between the level of 1.1810 and the area of interaction of trading forces 1,1890/1,1900/1,1920.
A breakout and fixation of the price outside one of the boundaries of 1.1810 or 1.1920 will most likely indicate a local entry and a major round of acceleration
Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes, it is clear that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a purchase due to the next touch of the price of the area of interaction of trading forces. Minute intervals work to return the price to a variable coordinate, 1.1850 signaling a sale.
The volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: month, quarter, and year
The measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the month, quarter, and year.
(November 24 was based on the date of publication of the article)
The dynamics of the current time is only 58 points, which is quite good for the Euro/Dollar currency pair. A high coefficient of speculative operations can still give acceleration to the market.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1,1890-1,1900-1,1920**; 1,2000***; 1,2100*; 1,2450**; 1,2550; 1,2825.
Support areas: 1,1810*; 1,1700; 1,1612*;1,1500; 1,1350; 1,1250*;1,1180**; 1,1080; 1,1000***.
* Periodic level
* * Range level
***Psychological level
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