03.12.202023:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro to include a second space, the ECB will not object

The Euro is at a 2-year high against the Dollar and many are waiting for the European Central Bank to say so. Ahead of the meeting, market participants will closely monitor any comments on the strength of the European currency. Some currency strategists believe that European financiers should express their indignation at the excessive strengthening of the national currency. Since its growth is due to the weakness of the Dollar and not the driving factors of the Euro, the ECB is unlikely to take any serious measures to correct the situation.

The regulator's management is likely to repeat the obvious: "The movement of the exchange rate has an effect on the dynamics of consumer inflation and, therefore, is a factor in policy discussions." This is the opinion of MUFG Bank.

It is unlikely that the ECB will try to contain the growth of the Euro by taking monetary measures. Note that one of the members of the Central Bank's Board has already lowered expectations about big steps at the upcoming meeting, which will be held next week.

With a further decline in the Dollar, the Euro will be able to test the 1.30 mark by the end of next year, according to strategists at Deutsche Bank. The question is whether the devaluation of the US currency will continue.

At the moment, the situation for greenback sellers is developing well. It's worth noting here that the Dollar is behaving contrary to risk appetite, meaning it only reflects global sentiment supported by positive sentiment about the vaccine and the expectation of support measures in the US. What if there is a significant increase in the yields of the United States? Stock markets are at risk of stumbling or even falling. All attempts to reduce the Dollar will be leveled even with the action of long-term downward factors. The closest event risk is the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 16.

A blow to risk appetite may also be the rejection of an agreement on a stimulus package although now the adoption of new measures is considered almost a done deal. On the topic of vaccination, there may also be a re-evaluation of values.

Now it is important to understand how confident and firm the breakout of the Euro above 1.20 is to the Dollar. First you need to keep this mark and then talk about further growth. There are doubts that the EUR/USD pair will remain in the lead amid the fall of the US currency. The relational theme is most attractive for other currencies.

You should also pay attention to the statistics to understand whether the Euro will be enough for the short term. On Thursday, the state Bureau of Statistics shared the data. The composite index of business activity in industry and services fell to 45.3 points in November from 50 points in October. This is the final assessment. According to experts, the indicator should have remained at the level of the preliminary estimate at 45.1 points.

Meanwhile, market players are now waiting for a breakout of the EUR/USD pair above 1.22. After taking this mark, the pair will be able to quickly soar to the area of 1.25.