03.12.202023:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Dollar and NonFarm: Test for the upward trend's stability

The euro-dollar pair is breaking records: day after day, EUR/USD buyers are updating price highs not only of the current year, but also of the previous year. Traders were last seen above 1.2100 almost three years ago. The long-term growth trend then peaked in February 2018 when the pair's bulls emerged at 1.2555. It is noteworthy that the pair grew for three months, but after reaching the ceiling for several months it almost decreased.

But back to the events of the day. If you look at the MN timeframe (monthly chart), you will see that the pair has been steadily growing over the past month and is rising just as confidently in early December. Buyers of EUR/USD were able to change the echelon by exchanging the price range of 1.1650-1.1830 for the 1.1900-1.2200 range. Moreover, the upper bar of the current range is conditional, since no one can say with certainty at what price point the pair will turn down.

Actually, this is the main strain in the current situation. No one doubts that the price will reach its peak and reverse 180 degrees. The only question is when it will happen. When the pair demonstrates a wave-like growth, the situation can be predicted using the support levels: if the bears cannot overcome them, then the upward trend is still in force, and longs are still relevant. But at the moment, the EUR/USD pair is rapidly growing, and secondly, it impulsively breaks through all the strongest resistance levels. It is difficult to say at what price point this flight will stop.

In such cases, it is necessary to take a wait-and-see attitude, despite the existing temptation to open long positions. After all, there is a very real risk that long deals will be made at peak prices, that is, on the eve of a trend reversal.

Tomorrow's NonFarm will be a kind of marker for determining the viability of the upward trend. The main locomotive of EUR/USD growth is the US dollar, which is falling across the market amid general optimism about the COVID-19 vaccine and a slowdown in the growth of the number of infected people in Europe. If the greenback ignores strong numbers on the labor market (or the release itself disappoints investors) tomorrow, then the pair will have another reason to test new price heights (i.e. 1.2200).

According to analysts, the unemployment rate will drop to 6.8% in November, and the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector will grow by almost 500,000. These are quite optimistic estimates. But taking into account the updated monetary strategy of the Federal Reserve, traders will have to pay attention to salaries. But there can be unpleasant surprises. According to preliminary forecasts, salary indicators will show a decline - both in annual and monthly terms (0.00% m/m and 4.2% y/y, respectively).

It is worth recalling here that the data on spending and income of Americans that was published last week had gone into the red zone. Thus, the level of personal consumer income fell to the level of -0.7% with the forecast of a decline to zero. This is the weakest result since August this year. The same dynamics was demonstrated by the level of expenses (Personal Spending), having decreased to the level of 0.5%, from the previous value of 1.2%. The Core PCE Price Index slipped to zero on a monthly basis (the worst result since April) and slowed to 1.4% - in annual terms. If tomorrow's salaries are also disappointing, the dollar could be hit by a sell-off again.

Thus, there is no need to rush with longs until tomorrow's release. At the moment, the upward momentum has died away again and bulls of the EUR/USD pair retreated from the price high of 1.2175. Despite the strength of the upward movement, buyers did not dare to storm the 22nd figure. This fact is an additional argument in favor of a wait-and-see attitude.