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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the downward trend line and performed a very inaccurate rebound from this line, which at first could be taken as a consolidation above it. Nevertheless, as a result, there was a rebound, a reversal in favor of the US currency, and a new fall began in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3264). Fixing the pair's rate above the trend line will work in favor of new growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.3499). As long as the pound continues to fly, news continues to flow on the key topic of Brexit and trade negotiations, even when they are no longer expected. Yesterday, for example, the British newspaper The Financial Times said, citing its sources, that a deal will still be concluded at the last moment before December 31. Traders immediately reacted with strong purchases of the British dollar and did not even pay attention to the conditions for the UK in this proposed transaction. The Financial Times believes that it is London that will have to concede seriously. However, information from a British newspaper can not be taken seriously. First, there were a huge number of such articles, and "your sources" does not mean that the information is true. Secondly, it is difficult to imagine that Boris Johnson will eventually agree to an agreement not according to his own rules. This will mean that the British Prime Minister is backing down, as for a year he has been trumpeting in all directions that London will seek a "fair agreement" and will not accept the "barbaric" demands of Brussels, which contradict the position of the UK as a sovereign and independent state.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3174), a reversal in favor of the British, and a consolidation above the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3291). Thus, the growth process can now be continued towards the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3481). The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth. However, the potential of bull traders is still limited by the descending trend line on the hourly chart.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). And this rebound remains the most important and clear signal on all charts. If the rebound is not false (and so far it does not look false), then the British pound is waiting for a significant drop.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the second downward trend line. A rebound from it in the long term will mean a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a long fall in the British dollar's quotes.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no major reports in the UK and the US on Monday. Thus, there was no information background, which did not prevent traders from trading very actively.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK- change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (07:00 GMT).
UK - unemployment rate (07:00 GMT).
UK - change in average earnings (07:00 GMT).
US - change in industrial production (14:15 GMT).
On December 15, the UK has already released reports on the unemployment rate, applications for benefits, as well as on wages. The first two showed a deterioration in the situation, the third exceeded the expectations of traders. The Briton did not move at this time.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed a new increase in the number of long contracts held by speculators. This time, the total number of contracts increased by 2,866, while the number of short-contracts decreased by 9,189. Thus, the mood of speculators has become much more "bullish" and is becoming so for the third week in a row. Given this fact, the growth of the British dollar is quite understandable, although the information background is not entirely on the side of the British currency. However, given that speculators have again taken up quite large purchases of the pound, we can assume its new growth. In this regard, I recommend that you carefully monitor the level of 1.3513 on the daily chart. Closing above it will confirm the intention of traders to re-open long contracts. The total number of open long and short contracts for all groups of traders remains approximately the same.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
At this time, I recommend that you be extremely careful with opening any deals on the British. The pair continues to move very raggedly and often changes direction. I recommend making new purchases of the British dollar if it is fixed above the trend line on the hourly chart with the target level of 200.0% (1.3499). The British dollar should have been sold with targets of 1.3264 and 1.3176, as it was rebounded from the trend line on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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