15.12.202014:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: plan for the American session on December 15 (analysis of morning deals)

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3340 and recommended opening short positions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about where you can and should have entered the market. We see that the bears are defending the resistance of 1.3340 and its test from the bottom up forms a good sell signal, which is immediately implemented in the support area of 1.3290, bringing about 50 points of profit. But even if you missed this entry point, you probably noticed a false breakout of the support of 1.3290, where I recommended opening long positions immediately on the rebound. On the chart, I marked the area after the test of which an excellent entry point for buying the pound was formed from top to bottom. As a result, the upward movement was 50 points, however, the bulls are not going to stop there.

Buyers of the pound coped with the primary task and now they are focused on the breakout of the resistance of 1.3340, the test of which from top to bottom forms an additional entry point into long positions with the aim of reaching a maximum of 1.3388, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-term target remains the resistances of 1.3437 and 1.3489, however, they will only be available if there is good news on the Brexit trade agreement. In the scenario of a repeated decline in the pair to the area of the morning support at 1.3290, it is best not to rush with purchases, but to wait until the minimum of 1.3246 is updated. However, I recommend opening long positions from this level only after the formation of a false breakout. A larger support level is seen in the area of 1.3193, where you can buy GBP/USD immediately on the rebound with the expectation of a correction of 20-30 points.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

Weak data on the UK labor market played on the side of sellers of the pound in the first half of the day, however, this did not lead to a larger sale. Now is the time for bears to think about protecting the resistance of 1.3388. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to open short positions by analogy with the morning sale. In this scenario, the GBP/USD pair can quickly return to the area of 1.3290. Only a real break of this level with a test from the bottom up, by analogy with yesterday's sales from the highs, form a good signal to sell the pound already with the aim of reducing to a minimum of 1.3246. Bad news on the trade agreement will lead to a larger collapse of GBP/USD in the area of lows of 1.3193 and 1.3114, on which the further bear market will depend. If the bulls manage to recapture the level of 1.3340 in the second half of the day, it is better to take your time with short positions. The optimal scenario for selling the pound will be an unsuccessful consolidation above 1.3388. I recommend opening short positions immediately on the rebound from the maximum in the area of 1.3437 with the aim of a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for December 8, there is a significant interest in the British pound. Long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 37,087 to 39,344. At the same time, short non-profit positions fell from the level of 44,986 to 33,634. As a result, the non-profit net position turned positive and jumped to the level of 5,710 against the negative value of -7,899 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders are ready to bet on further strengthening of the pound at the beginning of next year and the preponderance of buyers, even in the current situation, when there is no agreement on a trade agreement, and there are just over two weeks left until the end of the year.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates that the pound will continue to recover in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair declines, the lower limit of the indicator around 1.3305 will act as support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.