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18.12.202016:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EU begins mass vaccinations

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Exchange Rates 18.12.2020 analysis

The results of the virtual summit of the European Union for October 29 are being implemented. Upon discussing the economic recovery in the current situation, European leaders identified a number of stages that need to be implemented in the near future. One of them is universal vaccination. The first necessity was to approve the safest and most effective drugs as soon as possible. Thus, the vaccine from the pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and BioNtech has already been approved and is being sold in the UK and the USA. An important step is the equitable distribution of vaccines in the countries of the European region, namely, the receipt by countries of the number of vaccines that corresponds to the size of their population. The developed vaccines, according to the plan of the European commission, should be delivered to the EU countries simultaneously and under the same conditions. It is worth noting that the European Commission is going to check all the vaccination plans prepared by the EU member states.

As part of the vaccination plan strategy in the European region, 27 EU member states have already signed contracts with manufacturers of drugs designed to combat the spread of COVID-19. These are pharmaceutical companies Pfizer-BioNTech (USA-Germany), Moderna (USA), Johnson & Johnson (USA), AstraZeneca (UK), Sanofi-GSK (France – UK) and CureVac (Germany).

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced on Thursday that the start of vaccination against COVID-19 in all EU countries is scheduled for the period from December 27 to 29.

At the plenary session of the European Parliament, von der Leyen stated the need to vaccinate up to 70% of the European population and called on all 27 countries to start vaccination on the same day. The leader of the European Commission assured that such a number of doses of vaccines have been purchased, which is enough for everyone in Europe to be vaccinated. Moreover, von der Leyen is not averse to supporting other neighboring countries, as well as various partners around the world.

The vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech is due to receive approval from the European Medical Association (EMA) as early as next week. After that, EU countries will start vaccinating their citizens.

Meanwhile, vaccination has already started in the UK, USA, and Canada. In the US, only the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine has been approved so far. Medical workers are the top priorities to receive the drug, then the rest of the population will be vaccinated. The drug from the American company Moderna will soon also be actively used. In the UK, the Pfizer and BioNtech vaccine is used somewhat earlier than in the US. Elderly British and representatives of risk groups were the first ones to receive the vaccination. In Canada, the elderly and health workers are also primarily vaccinated, but by September 2021, the vaccine will be available to everyone. It is worth noting that in these three countries, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is temporary and is only available as an emergency.

Meanwhile, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has not yet issued a permit for the use of any coronavirus drugs in all EU member states. The EMA was clearly in no hurry to start vaccination in the eurozone and was going to give the go signal for the use of the drug from Pfizer-BioNTech only on December 29. But the German government insisted that the agency hurry up and make a decision before the Christmas season. Health Minister Jens Spahn intends to start vaccinating the EU population this year.

The German Hospital Association also asked EMA representatives to hurry up with all the necessary procedures to start vaccination in nursing homes. Italy's Health Minister, Roberto Speranza, also called for the vaccine to be approved soon. Thus, the EMA meeting was postponed a week earlier than planned, which will now be on December 21.

But not all EU countries are planning to use the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Hungary has already received permission from the regulator to use the Sputnik V vaccine from Russia.

Mass vaccination is a kind of pass to normal economic activity. Barclays, one of the largest financial conglomerates in the UK and the world, predicts that EU GDP will fall 6.9% this year and grow 4.7% in 2021. The IMF is even more pessimistic: in its opinion, the Eurozone's GDP will decrease by 8.3% this year and grow by 4.7% next year.

Analysts at Bank of America predict that the EU PMI will rise to 50 points in January, and to 60 in June (over the past several months, this indicator has remained below 50 points). If the index of business activity is above 50 points, then this is a guarantee of growth in activity, and if the index is lower, then this is a clear slowdown. According to experts, only vaccinations and a new stimulus package in the US economy can boost business activity.

Andreeva Natalya
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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