25.01.202114:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and trading recommendations for AUD/USD as of January 25, 2021

Today's review of the AUD/USD currency pair will focus on the technical picture of this instrument. Taking into account the end of the weekly trading on Friday, we will start by considering the corresponding timeframe.

Weekly

Last week was not the most successful for the US dollar, which declined against its Australian namesake by 0.16%. However, as can be seen on the weekly chart of the AUD/USD currency pair, the growth of the "Aussie" was very limited. As a result, a doji candle with a very small bullish body appeared on the "week". At the same time, the pair failed to update the previous weekly highs shown at 0.7806. The bulls on the "Aussie" were able to raise the quote only to the level of 0.7783, after which the auction was already held with the advantage of their opponents. Based on this, we can conclude that there is a very strong resistance of sellers, which takes place in the price zone of 0.7780-0.7820. In my opinion, it will be possible to count on further strengthening of the Australian currency only after a true breakdown of the level of 0.7820 and a confident closing of weekly trading above this mark.

The bear market for the pair will be indicated by the breakdown of the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which is located at 0.7543. However, this may not be enough to suggest further bearish sentiment for the instrument. In my opinion, only the withdrawal below the broken resistance of 0.7414, where the blue Kijun line is also located, and the closing of the weekly candle below will leave no doubt that there are serious sellers in the AUD/USD market who are ready to continue moving the price in the southern direction. Also, do not forget about the significant psychological and technical level of 0.7500. This important mark can also have a significant impact on the course of trading on AUD/USD. Looking at the last two weekly candlesticks, in my opinion, there is more chance of a downward trend scenario. The last candle turned out to be very unattractive, according to which it is possible to suggest that the strength of the bulls for the "Australian" is running out. Let's see what happens for the instrument in question at smaller time intervals.

Daily

There are several interesting nuances on the daily chart. First, since January 18, the pair has been trading in a fairly narrow range of 0.7660-0.7783. I would venture to assume that its further direction will depend on the direction in which the price will leave the indicated range. It is important to note that the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator passes slightly below 0.7660, which can provide additional support to the quote and not let it go lower. The second fundamental point is the inability of the pair to gain a foothold above or below the Tenkan red line. Let me remind you that for a true consolidation, it is necessary to close three consecutive daily candles above or below the Tenkan. While the pair is balancing around this line, going lower, then going higher. There is a sense of uncertainty among market participants who cannot decide on the direction of this currency pair.

If you go to the trading recommendations for AUD/USD, then at the moment, there is a probability of both successful purchases and profitable sales. However, in the personal opinion of the author, the priority is still for sales. I suggest considering the nearest opening of short positions after the pair rises to the price zone of 0.7730-0.7750. Sales at higher and more favorable prices can be tried after the rise in the area of 0.7780-0.7800. In both cases, the confirmation for opening short positions on AUD/USD will be the appearance of bearish candle patterns on the four-hour and (or) hourly charts. If we recommend buying, I suggest that you look at opening long positions after the pair's decline to the support of 0.7660. We may see a false breakout of this level. In this case, you can try to buy a little lower at 0.7640, from where the daily Kijun line is located.