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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair was trading at odds on Friday, March 5. The pair moved mostly sideways during the evening, which is absolutely normal for the Asian session, and a new round of downward movement began with the opening of the London Stock Exchange. The bears felt that even without the publication of any statistics, they had enough reason to continue selling. Thus, the first signal was formed at the beginning of the European trading session - surpassing 1.3857. Here traders could open short positions while aiming for the support level of 1.3792, which was successfully worked out in a couple of hours. This signal could bring up to 44 points of profit. This was followed by a rebound from 1.3792, which could already be regarded as a buy signal. After this rebound, the bulls were active and began to move the pair back up to 1.3857, but the US reports confused everything, which turned out to be very strong. Thus, the bulls did not reach their target on the first buy signal, and it should have closed at breakeven, according to our recommendations to move Stop Loss to zero when the price passed 15-20 points in the right direction. However, after the quotes fell to 1.3792, a new rebound followed from it and a new round of upward movement began, which, again, could be worked out. Everything passed quickly enough, so prices literally returned to 1.3857 in an hour, bringing profit on long positions for another 35 points and ... bounced off this level again, forming another sell signal. Thus, traders could have opened the fourth deal of the day, which also brought them a certain profit, since the pair fell to 1.3792. However, this time it was not worked out point wise, so profit on this deal could have been 20 points. Nevertheless, in total, about 80-90 points could be earned for the day, despite the fact that the pair, by and large, moved in a sideways channel.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, it is clear that the pound/dollar pair remains in a downward movement, however, the trend is not identifiable right now. There is no trend line or channel. The bulls failed to overcome the 1.3998 level three times, so the upward movement is not very relevant yet. Thus, it is now recommended, as before, to trade from the key levels and lines plotted in the chart, with an eye to a more likely downward movement. Of the fundamental factors, it is still possible to single out only "growth in the yield of US Treasuries" and "the factor of a new stimulus package for the American economy." No macroeconomic publications in either the US or the UK on Monday. Therefore, we would put technique first in terms of importance. Thus, it will be possible to open trades for a fall when rebounds from important levels and lines or after overcoming them from top to bottom. Open trades to buy in similar situations, as shown by the arrows in the chart. As before, you are advised to set the Stop Loss level when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points.
COT report
During the last reporting week (February 23 - March 1), the GBP/USD pair fell by 140 points. Despite the fact that the pound fell during the reporting week and continued to fall after it, the mood of the group of traders "Non-commercial" is becoming increasingly bullish. At a time when the probability of ending the upward trend, on the contrary, is growing. But we have what we have. During the reporting week, non-commercial traders closed 2,500 buy contracts and 8,200 sell contracts. Thus, the net position increased by about 6,000 contracts, and the mood of the major players became more bullish. This change is much better displayed using indicators. The second indicator, reflecting just the change in the size of the net position of "Non-commercial", shows the growth of this indicator over the past five weeks. At the same time, starting from mid-December, the green and red lines of the first indicator, which represent the sizes of the "Commercial" and "Non-commercial" net positions, move away from each other. And this, recall, is a sign of a trend strengthening. Thus, in general, the data of the COT report now speaks not of the end of the upward trend, but of its preservation and strengthening. As we said earlier, absolutely any conclusions drawn from the COT reports or "foundation" require confirmation by technical signals. Therefore, we recommend keeping in mind the conclusion drawn from the COT reports, but at the same time remember that on the 24-hour timeframe the pair has settled below the Kijun-sen line, and downward trends have formed on the lower timeframes.
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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