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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair failed to perform a fall below the level of 1.1820 during the past day. There were sluggish attempts to close under this level, however, we can not say that at least some of them ended successfully. Thus, the mood of traders, thanks to the downward trend corridor, remains "bearish", but the location of the price in the lower part of the corridor allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1873) or slightly higher. Now let's turn to the information background, which was very strong and diverse on Wednesday. Although, if you look at the movement of the pair, you get the impression of a complete emptiness of the calendar of economic events. But this is not the case. Early in the morning, business activity indices were released in the European Union. In the manufacturing sector, the index rose to 62.4, in the service sector – to 48.8, the composite – to 52.5. Thus, business activity is improving in the European Union, which gives reason to expect an acceleration in the pace of recovery after the crisis. In America, the first report on orders for durable goods was released. With forecasts of +1.0 - + 1.1% m/m, the real value was -1.1% m/m. Business activity indices also turned out to be worse than forecasts, but at the same time, they were better than the values of the previous month. Thus, business activity in America is still doing well. The speech of Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen in the US Congress before the banking committee completely repeated the speeches of a day ago. And the evening speech of Christine Lagarde did not tell traders anything important about the economy or monetary policy. So it turns out that only economic reports could draw attention to themselves, but traders considered them not too important and there was no reaction. On the older charts, the weakness of yesterday's movement is better seen.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a fall to the level of 1.1836 and consolidation under it. Thus, the probability of a further drop in quotations has increased in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729). This is the first goal. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). The rebound of the pair from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth. But the mood of traders is now characterized as "bearish", thanks to the downward trend line.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 24, the calendar of economic events in the European Union was filled with various reports and important events. However, traders did not find a reason for active trading on Thursday.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (09:00 GMT).
US - change in GDP for the quarter (12:30 GMT).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12-30 GMT).
On March 25, a new speech by Christine Lagarde will be held in the European Union, which may arouse the same interest among traders as yesterday. In America, there are two reports, both of which can also be ignored by traders. Even for GDP - which is unlikely to change from its previous estimate.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, and this time it turned out to be overly aggressive. For the third week in a row, the "Non-commercial" category of traders gets rid of long contracts on the euro currency. This time, their number has decreased by almost 12 thousand. However, this time, the "Commercial" category of traders also got rid of 53 thousand long contracts and 75 thousand short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts decreased by 73.5 thousand, and short contracts – by 84 thousand. It is not clear what caused such a huge change in the mood of speculators and commercial traders, but the data is exactly that. The chances of ending the upward trend for the euro currency are growing.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair on Wednesday if a close is made under the area of 1.1822-1.1836 with targets of 1.1772 and 1.1729. Purchases of the pair are recommended with an eloquent rebound from the area of 1.1822-1.1836 with targets of 1.1873 and 1.1952.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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