16.04.202109:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on April 16, 2021

The recently launched week is already coming to its end, and the market is preparing for the closing of trading. Once again, we have to state the fact that time flies incredibly fast. In today's article, we will highlight the most important events of the last day of trading, return to yesterday's statistics, and also try to predict with what achievements the main currency pair of the Forex market is preparing to complete the next five-day trading period.

However, I will start today's review with another summary of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it concerns Europe, in particular France. This European country, with a population of 67 million, has reached eighth place in the world in terms of the number of deaths from coronavirus infection. In total, since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, more than a hundred thousand people have died from this unfortunate and never-ending epidemic. In Europe, France ranks third in this indicator, after the United Kingdom and Italy. The indicator is very disappointing and sad. This situation forces the French authorities to impose or maintain tougher restrictions, which harm the eurozone's second-largest economy after Germany.

As for the economic calendar, yesterday's extensive block of statistics from the United States as a whole was in the green zone, that is, the reports came out better than the forecast values. Alas, this cannot be said about the data on industrial production every month, which, in contrast to the forecast growth of 2.8%, grew by only 1.4%, that is, twice as much. The main fundamental indicators of the day today will be data from the eurozone on the consumer price index, which will be released at 10:00 London time. At 13:30 (London time), reports on the number of construction permits and the laying of new homes will be received from the United States. The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan will end the macroeconomic weekly cycle at 15:00 (London time). Now it's time to move on to the technical analysis of the main currency pair.

Daily

And again, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that yesterday's trading recommendations for sales from 1.1988, in the case of the appearance of appropriate signals and with small goals, were correct. As well as the assumption that the resistance level of 1.1988 is a tough nut to crack for the euro bulls, which they still can't figure out. But such attempts have taken place. At the auction on April 15, the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1993, where it could not gain a foothold and turned to decline, ending yesterday's session at 1.1965. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that two consecutive daily candles closed above the blue 50 simple and black 89 exponential moving averages. In this regard, as well as the fact that the weekly trading closes today, the closing price and the formed candle on both the daily and weekly charts will be very important. We will discuss these and other issues, but on Monday, taking into account the actual end of the current five-day trading period.

H1

In the meantime, let's briefly talk about trading recommendations for those who want to open fresh positions on the last day of weekly trading. First of all, I once again draw your attention to the fact that yesterday's recommendations to sell, if a reversal pattern appears under 1.1988 on the daily or lower timeframes, have been confirmed. On the hourly chart, the circled bearish reversal candle is visible, after which the decline in the quote began. The recommendations for opening purchases from the price zone of 1.1960-1.1950 were also correct. Given that the weekly trading closes today, as well as the fact that the euro/dollar is trading in a fairly narrow price range, I can offer two trading ideas to those who want to enter the market. The first one is based on the fact that today the pair will remain in the narrow corridor 1.1950-1.1993, and then we sell EUR/USD on the approach to the upper border and buy near the lower one. The second trading recommendation is based on exiting the established range and buying or selling at the breakdown of one of its boundaries or after the actual breakdown on the rollback to the broken level. However, I would like to warn you that on Fridays, when the market closes the week, trading is usually quite nervous, and as a result of the fierce struggle of the opposing sides, cases of false breakouts are significantly more frequent.