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For two weeks in a row, the number of big players of Brent crude in the derivative market CME Group has been rising. According to the recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, during the previous week, Smart Money reduced the bullish activity by 1%.
Despite a rise in oil prices during the period from April 6 to April 13, institutional investors were closing their buy positions, following the insider information about a possible drop.
As a result, after the execution of May options, oil prices stopped growing. Moreover, the prices have been falling for the third day in row.
The main question is how deep oil could slide.
CRUDE OIL D1:
The current market situation will help us to answer this question.
On Thursday, at the moment of opening of the European session, sellers of options lost more than $258 million.
Judging by the Commitments of Traders report, the US oil quotes will continue losing in value during the next week.
At the same time, the target for the decline on the daily time frame is the level of the minimum profitability of the market makers (58.00).
Institutional investors agreed to move in one direction during the week and simultaneously reduced the number of closed positions by 5%.
CRUDE OIL M30:
If traders choose day trading, they should take into account that the nearest support level is limited by buyers (60.45).
A rise in the volume of mid-term positions worth $20.8 million may intensify the mentioned support level.
According to the main scenario, buyers may successfully test this level and move higher until the end of the US trade. The limit is located at 61.91.
The intermediate target of growth within the day is the option balance of the week (61.51).
If the price breaks and fixes below the level of limited buyers (60.45), the alternative scenario is likely to take place. In this case, the price will continue moving towards the long-term target on the daily time frame. Until the end of the week, the target will be located at 59.62.
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