Stay 
Trading Conditions
Products
Tools
EUR/USD – 1H.
Hi dear traders!
Yesterday EUR/USD rebounded from 100.0% Fibonacci level which is 1.1990. As the single European currency asserted strength, EUR/USD climbed to 127.2% Fibonacci level that is 1.2068. The next expected move is a retracement in favor of the US dollar with a decline back to 1.1990. If the currency pair closes above 127.2% Fibonacci level, this will increase the likelihood of a further growth towards 1.2117. The information background was more important for the pound sterling yesterday than for the euro or the US dollar. The sterling was gyrating for the whole day. Unlike GBP, the euro made an accurate and strong move in the same direction. Yesterday, the information background lacked any crucial news or economic data to impact on the euro.
Interestingly, retail sales data for the Eurozone expanded a bit stronger than expected in March. So, it was not the catalyst for the euro's advance. A speech by Christine Lagarde also had nothing to do with the euro's growth on Thursday. The ECB President spoke about the environmentally-focused union in the capital market with a view to generating massive investments in the "green" future of the EU. Friday is going to be jam-packed with market-moving events. Tonight, the US Labor Department is due to report on employment in the US economy for April. This report is viewed as a barometer of the labor market's health. Investors will also pay attention to the unemployment rate. According to the consensus, the US public and private sectors added 950,000 jobs excluding farm employees. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 5.8%. If these predictions come true, the US currency could gain a foothold. Recently, traders take little notice of macroeconomic data. Let's hope that traders will shift focus back towards the economic calendar.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On a 4-hour chart, EUR/USD reversed upwards yesterday and closed at 1.2027 that is above 161.8% Fibonacci. The price could extend its climb towards 1.2223. Today I don't see any divergences emerging. A 1-hour chart presents a more accurate and comprehensive picture.
EUR/USD – Daily.
In a daily chart, EUR/USD closed above the level of 1.2027 that is 161.8% Fibonacci level. Even with this closing price, the ongoing picture is not getting simpler. Thus, you are recommended to monitor a 4-hour chart for a while or even a 1-hour chart which displays important details.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
According to a weekly chart, EUR/USD fixed the price above the triangle pattern that sustains prospects of a further long-term growth of the currency pair.
Economic calendar
On May 6, the EU and the US released a few reports which did not make any impact on market sentiment.
On May 7, the following news is on investors' radars:
EU – economic forecasts by European Commission (09-00 UTC)
EU – ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks (10-00 UTC)
US – unemployment rate (12-30 UTC)
US – nonfarm payrolls (12-30 UTC)
The focal point on May 7 is certainly the US nonfarm payrolls. Besides, traders attach importance to unemployment data in the US, a speech by Christine Lagarde, and economic forecasts by the European Commission. All in all, the information background is going to be concentrated.
COT(Commitments of traders):
The COT report published last Friday again revealed that large market players were cementing the bullish sentiment that gave EUR new opportunities for a further growth. The number of existing long contracts opened by non-commercial traders amounted to 5,568 whereas the number of short contracts was 2,938. Thus, the bullish sentiment of non-commercial traders is increasing moderately. For your reference, the gap between the overall long and short contracts opened by retail speculators has been getting narrower since the start of the year. However, this gap has been increasing again over the last three weeks.
Outlook for EUR/USD and trading tips
I would recommend selling EUR/USD in case the price closes below 1.1990. This did not happen yesterday. Today I would advise selling the pair with the target of 1.1990 if the price sinks from 1.2068 according to a 1-hour chart. Alternatively, buying the pair is recommended today if the price closes above 1.2086 according to a 1-hour chart with the target of 1.2117.
Terms
The Non-commercial category includes major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and large investors.
The Commercial category embraces commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not to obtain speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
The category of Non-reportable positions means small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
