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Here are the details of the economic calendar from June 15:
The UK labor market data was published yesterday, where the unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.7%, but even with the existing progress, the situation is quite difficult since unemployment in the country is still at a high level. For comparison, the unemployment rate was 3.9% in the same period last year.
At the same time, employment in the country only rose by 113 thousand against the forecast of 150 thousand. As for applications for unemployment benefits, it declined by 92.6 thousand, but this signal could not help the pound's value to strengthen.
This was followed by the retail sales data in the United States, which declined more than expected.
In particular, the US Department of Commerce said that retail sales fell 1.3% in May. At the same time, the data for April was revised upwards by 0.9%.
The market's reaction to the US statistics was seen in terms of the weakening of the US dollar, albeit minimal.
Analysis of trading charts from June 15:
The EUR/USD pair showed local speculative interest. As a result, traders could observe the price range of a little more than 40 points. There are no major changes in the market relative to Monday (June 14). The quote is still in a pullback stage from the support area of 1.2100, where, considering the recent price fluctuations, the stagnation is visible with the transition from the pullback stage to accumulation.
The GBP/USD pair managed to stay below the level of 1.4080 in an H4 interval for the first time since mid-May, which can be regarded as a change in the structure of the 1.4100/1.4245 side channel.
There are drastic fundamental changes, but the proper effect of this is not yet observed.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 16, 2021
Today, the United Kingdom released its inflation data, where they record an increase in consumer prices from 1.5% to 2.1% against a forecast of 1.8%.
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, an increase in inflation is a positive signal for the national currency, but not in the case of such rapid growth since it can lead to the opposite effect in the form of a tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England.
The pound's reaction to the publication of inflation data had a distinct speculative interest, so conclusions should not be drawn, since the growth in the value of the pound may be local.
The main event of the day, week, and even month is considered to be the meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations, where everyone expects details on possible actions of the regulator regarding the economic situation in the country.
To simply put it, investors are concerned about the very rapid rise in American inflation, which could lead to a tightening of monetary policy. Thus, we are waiting for the results of the meeting, followed by the comments of the regulator and its chapter, since a speculative round of activity will be set based on this information.
Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see a fairly narrow price fluctuation within 1.2114/1.2135, but this process is very similar to the accumulation of trading forces before a pre-important event. The signal coordinates are the price values of 1.2100/1.2150, which is the maximum deviation of the last trading day. The breakdown of a particular control value, working on the outgoing movement is considered as a trading tactic.
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, we have a high speculative interest during the start of the European session, which led to a reversal to the area of 1.4115. In this situation, the upward momentum is likely to be local and may still change. The changes in the structure of the side channel indicate a downward development, but in order for the sellers' chances to increase, the quote should return below the 1.4080 level.
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