06.09.202110:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 6. UK's supply shortage gains momentum

The wave counting for the GBP/USD pair still looks quite convincing and does not require any additions and adjustments at the moment. The assumed waves a, b, and c of the assumed upward trend segment are quite long. Nevertheless, the wave counting itself does not cause any doubts. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3873 mark, which is equal to 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicates a possible exit of quotes from the reached highs, but it is unlikely that the construction of the wave c itself will be completed. Thus, I expect a breakthrough of this mark and a further increase in quotes in the direction of the January peaks. At this time, there is still no reason to assume a complication of the current wave count. The upward trend can take both a three-wave and a five-wave form. Exactly by the nature of the waves, it already differs from several previous ones. All the waves in it are much more extended.

The GBP/USD pair rose by 65 basis points on Friday but also lost most of the growth. The fall of the US currency was caused by an exceptionally weak nonfarm payrolls report, while all other reports on Friday did not interest the markets. At the same time, I can't help but draw attention to the fact that other reports in the US were not as weak as the nonfarm payrolls data. Thus, the increase in dollar quotes on Friday and Monday night is a residual reaction of the markets to the entire package of statistics from America. One way or another, but the construction of an upward wave continues, so I expect a new increase in the GBP/USD pair. However, this also requires that the markets continue to buy the British pound and sell the US dollar. And this may cause problems in the first half of the new week since there are no particularly important reports and events planned for these days.

In the UK, the PMI for the construction sector will be released today, and tomorrow there will be speeches by representatives of the Bank of England Catherine Mann and Michael Saunders. In the near future, the attention of the markets will be drawn not only to the Fed because of the issue of the asset purchase program and its possible completion. A similar question is addressed to the Bank of England, which has also repeatedly made it clear that it may start curtailing incentives soon. However, in general, the amplitude of the GBP/USD pair's movements in the first two days of the new week may remain very weak. I also want to note that news continues to come from the UK that a particular retail chain is facing supply disruptions, delays, which leads to a shortage of some goods on the shelves in stores. Last week, the retail chain Co-operative Group announced these problems.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, so at this time I suggest considering buying the pair for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The instrument, presumably, has completed the construction of the downward wave b and is ready to increase.

The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue in the near future.